Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin's MVRV ratio dropping to the 1.8-2.0 range signals a local bottom, historically preceding price rallies.
- •Distress-driven selling may clear leverage, setting the stage for a market reversal, according to analysis.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell 11% between Nov. 3 and Nov. 4, breaking below the $100,000 level for the first time in four months. This led to the liquidation of over $1.3 million in leveraged long positions and coincided with profit-taking by long-term holders and capitulation by recent buyers.
Several key data metrics suggest that this drop to $98,000 may have marked the local bottom for BTC, offering a favorable entry point for the bulls.
Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Hints at a "Possible Bottom"
Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, an indicator that measures whether the asset is overvalued, has dropped to levels that have historically marked local bottoms, according to CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Research Japan.
The Bitcoin MVRV ratio is "now hovering around 1.8, its lowest level since April 2025, signalling possible bottom formation," the analyst said in a QuickTake analysis on Thursday, adding:
"This suggests that the market value is approaching investors’ average cost basis, implying a potential accumulation zone."
The last time this metric was this low was in mid-April, when the BTC/USD pair price bottomed at $74,500, before embarking on a 50% rally to its previous all-time high of $112,000 reached on July 9.
XWIN Research Japan added:
"Historically, when MVRV falls to the 1.8–2.0 range, it often coincides with mid-term market bottoms or early recovery phases."
If history repeats itself and Bitcoin stages a similar recovery, it could rise as high as $150,000, representing about 50% increase from Tuesday’s low at $98,500.
Bitcoin Could See a Capitulation-Driven Reversal
As Cointelegraph reported, short-term holders with unrealized losses capitulated when Bitcoin dropped below $100,000.
Asset holders with significant unrealized losses "often capitulate near local bottoms," onchain data provider Glassnode wrote in an X post on Thursday.
Capitulation often serves as a critical turning point, as panic-driven sell-offs exhaust weaker hands, clearing out speculative leverage and resetting the market’s foundation.
Glassnode’s Capitulation Metric reveals that Bitcoin holders are capitulating at the same rate as at previous bottoms of $50,000 on Aug. 1, 2024, and $74,500 in April.
"This pattern highlights how distress-driven selling can shape market reversals, a key dynamic now trackable via our Cost Basis Distribution Dashboard," Glassnode added.
Distress-driven selling has historically exhausted "weak hands," allowing stronger holders to accumulate at lower levels, setting the stage for recovery.
As Cointelegraph reported, sell-side pressure has eased, while long-term accumulation remains strong, and rising stablecoin liquidity hints at a possible rebound.