The cryptocurrency market has experienced sharp declines this week. These downturns follow a prolonged US government shutdown, diminishing expectations for a Fed interest rate cut, and hawkish statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Following these sharp and sudden declines in Bitcoin and altcoins, investors' expectations of further declines have increased.
The declines experienced at this point have also significantly changed the expectations on the prediction market Polymarket. Investors believe that downside movements will continue in the short term, especially in Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL).
According to Polymarket data, the expectations for BTC, ETH, and SOL prices in November are as follows:
1. Bitcoin (BTC)
In the predictions titled “What Price Will Bitcoin Reach in November?”, bearish expectations for BTC seem to dominate. A drop below $95,000 stands out as the most likely scenario, with a 39% probability. This is followed by a 36% probability that Bitcoin will rise above $115,000 in November. Finally, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $90,000 is around 20%, while the probability of it rising above $120,000 is around 17%.
2. Ethereum (ETH)
The predictions titled “What Will Ethereum's Price Be in November?” also feature bearish predictions for Ethereum. At this point, the majority of market participants believe ETH will continue its decline in November. The most dominant scenario is pricing in a 47% probability of a price below $3,000. A rise above $4,000 is priced in with a 34% probability. These are followed by the third most prominent prediction, with a 27% probability of ETH falling below $2,800. The probability of Ethereum rising above $5,000 in November was limited to only 3%.
3. Solana (SOL)
The expectation of a decline is also clearly evident in the predictions titled “What Will Solana's Price Be in November?” The strongest scenario is below $140, which has a 51% probability. A break above $190 was the second-largest prediction at 41%.