An unprecedented volume of long-held Bitcoin, over $104 billion worth, has been moved on-chain in 2024 and 2025, injecting serious uncertainty into the market. This massive capital shift coincides with significant headwinds, including $1.22 billion in net outflows from spot US Bitcoin ETFs in November. Corporate buying is cooling off, a pattern seen even with giants like Strategy. Is this a mass exit by early believers or just routine capital rotation from traders?
The recent market downturn has been sharp. Since October 1, the total crypto market capitalization has fallen 8.21%. The damage is clear across the board: Bitcoin (BTC) is down 10.56%, Ethereum (ETH) has fallen 17.3%, and BNB is off 5.45%.
This downturn isn’t random; several forces are at play. Macroeconomic jitters over the US government shutdown and unpredictable Federal Reserve policy have pushed investors to de-risk.
At the same time, the institutional buying and steady ETF inflows that propped up the market have vanished. Pouring fuel on the fire was the movement of $104 billion in dormant Bitcoin, a massive reintroduction of supply that intensified and likely sped up the sell-off. This on-chain event has become the focal point for understanding the market’s current weakness.
ETF Outflows and Slower Corporate Accumulation
This on-chain distribution is mirrored by a clear slowdown in institutional demand. In November, spot US Bitcoin ETFs have already registered a net outflow of $1.22 billion.
This institutional caution is also visible in the actions of Strategy, the largest public holder of BTC. The company’s acquisition pace has cooled significantly. It purchased just 884 BTC in November and 778 BTC in October. These figures are a fraction of the 3,666 BTC acquired in August and 7,574 BTC in September.
The why behind this institutional hesitation is rooted in macroeconomic anxiety. The threat of a record-long US government shutdown and questions over the Fed’s next rate decision have made capital allocation too risky. Ongoing trade friction between the US and China just makes matters worse. The industry looks for clarity in uncertain times like these.
This is precisely why the industry will be watching closely for insights. And some of these insights will be shared by leaders like Michael Saylor, Raoul Pal and Binance Co-Founder CZ at Binance Blockchain Week 2025. Binance CEO Richard Teng highlighted the event’s timeliness, “We’re thrilled to welcome this esteemed group of thought leaders, innovators, and entrepreneurs who have not only guided the industry but championed its growth. Their collective expertise will elevate discussions and inspire the community, from professionals to everyday users, as we move into a new era for the industry.”
Most of the Revived Supply Is Not From ‘OGs’
A deeper look at the on-chain data challenges the narrative that Bitcoin’s earliest believers are exiting the market en masse. The evidence suggests the opposite. The vast majority of the 10.6 million BTC that moved in 2024 and 2025 came from holders of a much shorter duration, not from so-called “Bitcoin OGs.”
The data breakdown is telling. Coins held between six months and one year accounted for 4.669 million BTC, or 44.05% of the total revived supply. Another 2.396 million BTC (22.6%) had been dormant for one to two years, while coins held for two to three years and three to five years made up 1.13 million BTC (10.67%) and 1.099 million BTC (10.37%), respectively.
In contrast, truly long-term holders represented a much smaller fraction of the movement. Coins held for five to seven years comprised just 775,576 BTC (7.32%), while those dormant for seven to ten years and over ten years accounted for a mere 363,664 BTC (3.43%) and 172,809 BTC (1.63%).
Synthesized, the data shows that coins held for five years or less represent a commanding 87.69% of the moved supply. This pattern is not indicative of a loss of conviction among early adopters. Instead, it aligns perfectly with profit-taking behavior from participants who entered during more recent market cycles.
Profit-Taking Peaks as Market Seeks New Floor
While over $100 billion in dormant Bitcoin has re-entered circulation, the on-chain data clearly indicates this activity is driven primarily by short-to-mid-term holders realizing profits. This is not an exodus of Bitcoin’s original believers but a natural phase of a market cycle.
This distribution is compounded by a notable cooling of institutional demand. Significant ETF outflows and a more measured accumulation strategy from corporate players reflect a rational response to heightened macroeconomic uncertainty.
The current market is defined by this intersection of cyclical profit-taking and cautious institutional capital. A sustained recovery will likely depend on a stabilization of the macro environment, which would be needed to restore the strong institutional inflows seen earlier in the year.