Key Observations on Bitcoin Movements
Over $104 billion in long-held Bitcoin has moved since 2024, sparking debate on whether older BTC investors are exiting the market for good. Onchain data indicates that most of the moved Bitcoin originated from short-term holders, not from addresses held for extended periods.
Long-Term Holder Activity and Market Reaction
Bitcoin's price decline from $126,000 to $100,000 coincided with an observable increase in selling activity by long-term holders (LTHs). Reports indicated that over 400,000 BTC moved from LTH wallets in the past 30 days, fueling discussions about whether these movements represent genuine exits by "OG" investors or routine redistribution by traders.
Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, noted that more than 470,000 BTC, held for over five years, have changed hands in 2025. When combined with 2024 figures, this amounts to over $104 billion, representing nearly half of all Bitcoin that has been in circulation for five years or more. Thorn characterized these two years as "unprecedented" due to the significant distribution observed.
This narrative drew a response from Troy Cross, Professor of Philosophy at Reed College and a prominent Bitcoin commentator. Cross suggested that such selling activity challenges Bitcoin's foundational ethos. He argued that if early adopters are exiting in large volumes, it implies that "OG" holders no longer perceive Bitcoin as fundamentally different from traditional IPO-style investments.
Onchain Analysis Challenges "OG Dumping" Narrative
However, onchain analyst Checkmate contested the widespread use of the term "OG dumping." The analyst pointed out that while approximately half a million older coins have been moved, the majority of the supply revived in 2025 originates from coins held for considerably shorter durations, specifically between 6 months and 2 years. This pattern is more indicative of traders securing profits rather than long-term believers leaving the market.
Further supporting this perspective, a breakdown of revived supply between 2024 and 2025 indicated that most flows originated from coins dormant for under two years. Specifically, 0.7 million BTC were held for 6 months to 1 year, and 0.65 million BTC for 1 to 2 years. Much smaller volumes came from coins held for 3–5 years (0.12 million BTC) and 5–7 years (0.05 million BTC).
Blockstream CEO Adam Back concurred with this analysis, stating that the charts presented a "very different story." He emphasized that most of the moved coins belong to recent-cycle traders, not Bitcoin's original early adopters.
Bitcoin Faces Dual Pressure from ETFs and LTHs
Data from CryptoQuant suggested that Bitcoin's recent price dip is attributable to a dual "selling war" involving institutional spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors and long-term holders. Both groups are currently exerting synchronized downward pressure on the price.
Onchain data revealed that the seven-day cumulative netflow for spot Bitcoin ETFs has decreased by nearly $21 billion, marking the largest outflow in six weeks and indicating a significant shift in market sentiment. The demand driver for Bitcoin has effectively transformed into a source of supply.
With ETF inflows no longer compensating for LTH distribution, Bitcoin is now operating in a supply-heavy market environment. Analysts caution that unless institutional demand rebounds or long-term holders cease their strategic selling, the market's near-term trajectory is likely to remain downward.