The Hyperliquid (HYPE) price starts December with heavy volatility and major headlines shaping its direction. The big story is the newly approved merger that creates a dedicated HYPE treasury aiming to raise up to $1B for token purchases – including $265M ready to deploy. Also, a 1.75M HYPE unlock added pressure during a broader market selloff, pushing the price back to the $29 support. With momentum fading and uncertainty rising, traders are watching for the next strong move. Here are the three factors that could determine where HYPE goes in 2026.
$1B Treasury Catalyst
Hyperliquid’s merger with Sonnet BioTherapeutics sets up a massive treasury designed to buy HYPE on the open market. OAK Research estimates the first round could include 2.6M HYPE (~$87M), an amount equal to more than a month of current daily buybacks compressed into a shorter window. This creates structural demand that can support the price even during weak market conditions. If the treasury deploys capital consistently, it could act like a long-term buyer – similar to corporate buybacks in traditional markets – and help stabilize or lift the HYPE price through 2026.
Token Unlock Overhang
On December 1, Hyperliquid unlocked $354M worth of HYPE, equal to 2.66% of the supply. This is part of a much larger schedule: 237.8M HYPE (around $7.9B) will vest linearly until 2027, adding roughly $410M worth of new supply every month. Current buybacks average $2.5M a day, which can only absorb a fraction of this. Unless demand or ecosystem revenue increases meaningfully, these unlocks could limit upside and create repeated waves of sell pressure throughout 2026.
Technical & Sentiment Risks
The HYPE price lost the $29 support, showing weakness despite oversold RSI levels near 30. Momentum on spot markets remains weak, with daily volume around $342M, far below the activity seen in derivatives markets. This imbalance makes the price easier to push around when liquidations hit. Open interest is up 2.52% to $773B, which shows traders are gearing up for big moves, but it also means the drop could get sharper if the price falls again. If the HYPE price can close back above $36.36, the mood could shift quickly and force short sellers to exit. Failure to do so leaves the door open for a deeper drop toward $19.
Moreover, the Hyperliquid price could enter 2026 with powerful bullish potential on one side and heavy supply pressure on the other. The coming year will likely depend on whether the $1B treasury buyer outweighs the impact of constant token unlocks. If the treasury acts aggressively and HYPE recovers key resistance zones, the price could rebound quickly. If not, early 2026 may bring more downside before a stronger base forms.