January 18 is shaping up to be a defining date for Ondo Finance and ONDO price, though not for the reasons many expect. The $772M token unlock has sparked intense debate, yet the real story sits beneath the surface. Crypto analyst Sarosh, known online as @SaroshQ2022, frames the event as a liquidity stress test rather than a final judgment. That distinction matters more than the headline number.
Unlocks often look dramatic when isolated from context. Sarosh argues that unlocks create optional liquidity, not automatic selling pressure. The market response during this window will reveal whether ONDO behaves like fragile speculation or durable infrastructure.
Orderly Absorption Shows ONDO Finance Liquidity Depth
The most constructive outcome centers on calm digestion. Sarosh describes a scenario where ONDO price holds structure, volume stays controlled, and selling pressure does not cascade. Such behavior would suggest alignment among longer-term holders and limited urgency from early stakeholders. Liquidity depth becomes visible only when supply increases without chaos.
ONDO price already reflects heavy pessimism after falling close to 80% over the past 12 months. That prior drawdown reduces the odds of panic selling during the unlock. Sarosh notes that emotional exits tend to happen earlier, when narratives collapse and liquidity is thin. This environment looks different.
$Ondo Liquidity Stress Test
— Sarosh (@SaroshQ2022) January 15, 2026
What this really means is January 18th is a forced honesty moment for ONDO — not a verdict. A $772M unlock sounds terrifying when you read it in isolation, but unlocks don’t equal instant selling. They equal optional liquidity.
The stress test is…
In this case, volatility still appears, headlines still amplify fear, and supply does leak into the market. Structural damage, however, remains absent. Sarosh estimates this outcome carries roughly a 60% probability, making it the most likely path.
Short Term ONDO Price Flush That Still Stabilizes
A second path involves turbulence without lasting harm. ONDO price could experience a sharp knee jerk drop as unlocked tokens meet cautious demand. Sarosh outlines a possible 15% to 25% downside move before sellers exhaust themselves.
Such moves often feel worse than they are. Liquidity thins briefly, charts look uncomfortable, and sentiment dips again. Stabilization tends to follow once forced sellers clear. Sarosh assigns this scenario around a 25% chance and emphasizes that survival remains intact.
Timing also plays a role. This unlock arrives before the Ondo Summit, not after. Unlocks ahead of narrative milestones frequently reset positioning and remove weak hands early. That process can prepare the market for the next phase instead of ending it.
Rare Failure Scenario Requires Broader Market Stress
The least likely outcome involves real breakdown. Sarosh places about a 15% probability on a scenario where liquidity disappears and ONDO price enters a prolonged decline. Importantly, this outcome usually needs broader market stress layered on top of the unlock itself.
Sarosh stresses that unlocks cause the most damage during euphoric conditions. ONDO does not sit near highs, and morale already reflects caution. That context shifts the odds away from collapse.
As January 18 approaches, the market will quietly answer an important question. Can ONDO carry weight when supply increases, or does it remain just another trade. Observing price behavior may prove more revealing than any headline, leaving this moment remembered either as noise or as the point where infrastructure began to act like itself.