In the world of crypto, whispers often turn into waves. A focused institutional move can quickly shift the landscape. And for XRP, that whispers-of-a-wave is gaining clear shape.
According to analyst FeFe on X, a large-scale influx—on the order of $10 billion—into XRP-backed spot ETFs could trigger a dramatic squeeze. He argues it would require purchasing slightly over 4 billion XRP at current prices. That math already sets the stage for potential imbalance between demand and supply.
Supply Constraints on Exchanges
On-chain data show meaningful reductions in XRP holdings on major exchanges. Exchange reserves have dropped by around 3.36 % since early October, a historically bullish sign tied to accumulation rather than distribution.
Tbh $47 per XRP is on the table this week if there is a Shane Ellis style XRP squeeze on the exchanges. If there is enough inflow for the ETFs, $10 billion, then they need to buy >4 billion at current price. Only $3B on exchanges and <500M OTC. Price gaps. #xrpsqueeze #minimoon
— FeFe (@fefe01101100) November 11, 2025
Further, industry dashboards estimate that wholesale XRP holdings on centralized exchanges were about 4.9 billion tokens—roughly 10 % of total supply as of mid-2024. With limited visible shopping inventory, any large institutional buy would rapidly push bids higher.
The Squeeze Mechanism Explained
FeFe’s scenario mirrors a classic “buy the scarce asset fast” setup. When ETFs launch, they must buy underlying assets. If they source from thin exchange order books rather than deep OTC markets, they risk driving up prices rapidly.
The combination of institutional allocation rushing into a token with a diminishing exchange-accessible supply creates the squeeze. It’s this dynamic that supports FeFe’s $47-target claim.
Current Market Context
XRP is currently trading at approximately $2.40. Analysts anticipate a spot XRP ETF launch, which would open regulated institutional access and could unlock large flows.
At the same time, exchange reserves are falling, and technical indicators show signs of consolidation before a breakout. When you map these elements—thin supply, incoming demand, ETF launch trigger—the foundation makes sense.
Risks and Caveats
This scenario isn’t guaranteed. Timing matters. Institutional flows might trickle rather than surge, reducing shock. OTC liquidity may absorb parts of the higher demand. Macro headwinds, regulatory risk, or exchange-specific idiosyncrasies could stall the move.
Notably, analysts caution that while ETF filings are active, fresh flows have yet to confirm magnitude.
Final Thought
If ETF money enters at speed and supply remains constricted, then $47 per XRP moves from headline to plausible outcome. As FeFe notes, the key is more than narrative—it’s the arithmetic of billions of dollars and billions of tokens. When the pieces align, a squeeze isn’t just possible—it becomes probable.