Key Insights
- •Delay is not denial: Why altcoin season did not materialize as expected.
- •Altcoins versus Bitcoin chart shows potential pivot from a historically significant level.
- •A look at the key signs and drivers of altseason.
Every major crypto market bull run since 2017 was characterized by an alt season, during which altcoin prices rallied aggressively.
2025 is almost a wrap, but altcoin season was a no-show despite heavy expectations. Altcoin season social mentions ballooned this week, but many traders and analysts remained uncertain about its fate.
And with just one more month left in 2025, the prospects of an altcoin season remained low.
Although it did not happen this year, some analysts believe that 2026 may be the year that altseason finally kicks off.
But before we look into that, let’s recap some of the reasons why it did not happen this year. Altseason failure in 2025 was likely due to poor timing.
The last time that altcoin season expectations were through the roof was in August. A sharp Bitcoin dominance drop in the weeks prior, perpetuated altseason expectations.
Unfortunately, market conditions flipped bearish as the threat of tariff wars was revived in August. A massive liquidity unwind also occurred, and the subsequent selloff shifted sentiment away from altcoins.
Despite this, some altcoins experienced robust demand in Q3, confirming altcoin season expectations.
Here’s Why Altcoin Season is Gaining Steam Once Again
As mentioned earlier, altseason mentions were on the rise in the last 7 days. This suggests that investors were once again looking at the prospects of another altcoin season rally.
The altcoin Bitcoin chart could be the reason for those expectations.
The chart revealed that altcoin prices were near their multi-year bottom support level.
Altcoin rallies have previously kicked off from the same level, suggesting a high likelihood that a similar outcome may play out.
The same chart also highlighted an ascending ceiling where previous altseasons ended.
Altcoin prices were still far from attaining those levels, hence indicating that investors may be finding altcoins attractive especially at recently discounted prices.
The altcoin season index also revealed that the market still favored Bitcoin. However, this may highlight ideal timing for altcoins particularly now that the markets are recovering.
Although the above chart confirmed that altcoin season had not yet kicked off, it may also highlight ideal timing as markets attempt recovery.
Key AltSeason Indicators to Look Out For
The altcoin season indicator hovered at 35 at the time of observation, which was neutral for the markets. It confirms that altseason is in full swing when it pushes above 75.
Altseasons in the past started when Bitcoin dominance dropped below 60%. The BTC dominance chart has been declining for the most part in November.
However, it has been rising in the last 5 days, although it was still below 60% at the time of observation.
Investors should also be on the lookout for altcoin accumulation by top holders, including whales. This is because smart money tends to get a head start before robust volumes start building up.
Another major sign could be when some top altcoins start outperforming Bitcoin in key metrics. For example, Ethereum may experience higher volumes and ETF inflows compared to Bitcoin.
There is one more major trigger that the markets have been anticipating. Changing liquidity conditions courtesy of rate cuts and the end of quantitative tightening may favor a maximum risk-on sentiment.
Altcoin market would reap big from incoming liquidity flows in such a scenario.