Key Insights
- •Altcoin market capitalization increased from $1.405 trillion on November 6 to $1.561 trillion on November 10, driven by easing concerns over the US government shutdown and macroeconomic relief.
- •Despite the $156 billion surge, the Altcoin Season Index remained at 33 out of 100, with sentiment stuck in fear territory and profit-taking activity elevated across high-beta tokens.
- •Privacy coins led the recovery, gaining 79% over three months, but regulatory pressure from Japan, South Korea, Dubai, and the European Union threatens to erode momentum as stricter AML requirements loom.
The “altcoin season” is not yet entirely on track, despite the altcoin market posting a sharp four-day rally, with total capitalization rising from $1.405 trillion on November 6 to $1.561 trillion at press time on November 10.
The move followed news of a potential resolution to the US government shutdown, which sent Bitcoin (BTC) above $106,000 and triggered a broad rotation across crypto assets. Ninety-nine of the top 100 cryptocurrencies traded in the green, with Ethereum (ETH) reclaiming levels above $3,600. However, analysts noted the rally bore hallmarks of a macro-driven relief bounce rather than a structural shift toward altcoin season.
Elevated Profit-Taking Despite Pump
Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, shared in a note that high-risk altcoins and privacy tokens led the recovery as investors returned to risky assets. Despite the movement, he warned that large holders continued to take profits, suggesting that asset allocation disclosure would be more effective than accumulation. Young added that the recovery appeared to be a rebound from macro-unwinding rather than a sustained trend, urging investors to watch for confirmation before expecting a reversal.
Privacy tokens stood out due to high volatility and growing interest in privacy themes amid tightened financial regulation. The cohort, comprising Dash (DASH), Monero (XMR), and Zcash (ZEC), collectively rose 79% in the past month, according to Artemis data. Zcash posted the strongest performance, rising from $74.30 on October 1 to $750 on November 7, marking its highest price since January 2018. At press time, ZEC traded at $621.73, up 1% in the past 24 hours.
Young noted that the rally in privacy tokens might attract regulatory scrutiny. Japan and South Korea effectively banned anonymity-enhanced coins from regulated exchanges, while Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority prohibited all activity involving such cryptocurrencies under its 2023 regulations. The European Union finalized its Anti-Money Laundering Regulation package in 2025, with provisions set to take effect from 2027 that prohibit crypto asset service providers from maintaining relationships involving assets that hinder the identification of their owners.
Multiple exchanges, including Binance, Kraken, and OKX, delisted privacy tokens across European Union states, citing regulatory obligations. In contrast, Poloniex globally delisted Monero in April 2025 due to concerns from the US Treasury. Young warned that privacy tokens remained vulnerable to regulatory risks, noting that stricter AML and KYC requirements or bans in key jurisdictions could quickly stall momentum.
Altcoin Season Indicators Show Caution Despite Relief Rally
Analysts characterized the weekend’s altcoin rebound as a macro-driven relief rally with early rotation signals, but breadth and positioning data argued for caution. The Altcoin Season Index stood at 33 out of 100 on November 10, with sentiment indicators remaining in fear territory. Matthew Hyland of TradingView argued that Bitcoin’s dominance trended lower since May, making the recent strength of altcoins more believable. He characterized the BTC move as a dead cat bounce, noting the Altcoin Season Index remained in Bitcoin-season territory.
Ledn chief investment officer John Glover said in a note that a deeper BTC correction is expected into 2026. Market analysts expected the next altcoin cycle to be narrower than the 2021 cycle, with liquidity clustering in large-cap tokens and ETF narratives.
What Comes Next After the Relief Pump
As long as Bitcoin held above the high $90,000 zone and Ethereum sustained itself above the mid-$3,000 zone, desks expected continued selective outperformance in large altcoins and DeFi blue chips. Improved macro headlines and weaker BTC dominance support this outlook. If those levels cracked or derivative data deteriorated, the weekend’s pump faced framing as another fadeable spike rather than the start of altcoin season.
Breadth remained thin, with participation concentrated in large-cap names. The consensus from the recent pump pointed to a high-beta relief rally with early rotation signals, but not a confirmed altcoin season. Most analyses pinned the move on politics and positioning rather than structural trends. The bottom line is that despite the altcoin market adding $156 billion in four days, profit-taking activity, thin participation, and regulatory pressure on privacy coins kept altcoin season confirmation elusive for now.