Altseason triggers have returned, and they mirror the exact conditions that preceded the last two major altcoin rallies.
Two key signals, a breakdown in Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) and a reversal in the ETH/BTC pair, have activated at the same time. For many traders, this combination is historically the moment when capital rotation accelerates away from Bitcoin and into the broader altcoin market. Merlijn The Trader notes that retail missed this shift twice already. With both triggers flashing again, the question now is whether investors will recognize the pattern early enough this time.
BTC Dominance Breaks Down, Repeating Classic Altseason Behavior
The chart shows Bitcoin dominance rolling over from a major resistance level, similar to the breakdowns that preceded altcoin surges in 2017–2018 and 2020–2021. When BTC.D begins to fall, it signals that Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market cap is shrinking. Historically, this shift has been driven by a growing appetite for higher-beta assets such as Layer-1s, DeFi tokens, infrastructure plays, gaming coins, and early-stage narratives.
In past cycles, BTC dominance drops marked the final phase of Bitcoin-led rallies, followed by months of aggressive capital rotation. The current breakdown resembles those earlier setups almost identically, adding weight to the argument that an altcoin expansion phase may be forming.
ETH/BTC Reversal Confirms a Change in Market Structure
The ETH/BTC pair has simultaneously printed a reversal from cycle lows — another essential marker that preceded previous altseasons. When Ethereum begins outperforming Bitcoin, broader risk appetite typically accelerates. This shift reflects a familiar dynamic: institutional money tends to enter Bitcoin first, then rotate into ETH, and only later move into the wider altcoin market.
In both prior cycles highlighted in the chart, ETH/BTC reversal acted as a confirmation signal. It reinforced the idea that Bitcoin’s dominance had peaked and that investors were positioning ahead of a wider market rotation. The current reversal aligns closely with those historical turning points.
Why Retail Often Misses These Phases and Why Timing Matters
Merlijn emphasizes that retail traders missed this setup twice before. In both earlier cycles, altcoin rallies began quietly, with little excitement or visibility. By the time social sentiment picked up, pricing had already jumped significantly. The same quiet accumulation phase may be unfolding now, as BTC.D weakens and ETH/BTC rises while sentiment remains relatively muted.
If this pattern repeats, early positioning becomes crucial. The most powerful altcoin moves in past cycles occurred shortly after these exact signals appeared, but before retail participation surged.
A Familiar Setup Ahead of a Potential 2026 Altcoin Expansion
The chart outlines three altseasons across three different market environments, each beginning with identical structural triggers. The current setup, now forming ahead of 2026, mirrors those earlier phases almost perfectly. While nothing in markets is guaranteed, the alignment of BTC dominance breakdown and ETH/BTC reversal is an uncommon combination, one that historically preceded explosive altcoin performance.
The message from Merlijn is clear: these signals don’t appear often, and when they do, the window of opportunity tends to be early. With both triggers firing again, traders preparing ahead of time may find themselves positioned for what could be the next major rotation in the crypto cycle.