A recent technical assessment from market analyst ChartNerd suggests that XRP is approaching a significant juncture on its three-month Heikin-Ashi chart. The current quarterly candle has less than 75 days until its close, and the color of this closing candle is historically consequential.
Past instances where XRP printed red three-month Heikin-Ashi candles at elevated price levels have been followed by deeper corrective phases and extended periods of market weakness. The current market setup presents an opportunity for XRP to invalidate this historically bearish pattern, which has previously aligned with macro market tops.
The analysis highlights multiple historical periods where bearish quarterly Heikin-Ashi candles preceded significant drawdowns. These examples are emphasized to underscore the concern that a similar outcome could occur if the current candle fails to close positively. The focus of this assessment is on the structural signal conveyed by higher-timeframe candle behavior, rather than short-term price fluctuations.
Historical Context and a Notable Exception
While the historical pattern of bearish closes preceding downturns is presented as consistent, the analysis acknowledges an exception during November and December 2024. In that period, the three-month Heikin-Ashi candles were red but exhibited relatively shallow bodies.
This deviation indicates that not all bearish closes carry the same market implications, and the structure of the candle itself plays a role in determining its significance. The analyst suggests that a similar outcome, where a red close forms without signaling a severe trend shift, could theoretically occur again.
However, a distinction is made between shallow bearish candles and the more pronounced red candles observed at previous macro turning points. The latter, characterized by larger bodies and stronger downside confirmation, represent the scenario market participants would ideally want to avoid. Therefore, achieving a green close remains crucial to invalidate comparisons with earlier market tops.
Diverging Views on Technical Signals and Liquidity
The analysis also references a contrasting viewpoint from another market participant who downplays the relevance of candle formations. This perspective emphasizes liquidity conditions over chart patterns, arguing that the absence of major capital inflows and new all-time highs indicates that risk-on behavior has not yet returned to the market. From this viewpoint, technical candle signals are secondary to evidence of sustained capital rotation into higher-risk assets.
This exchange reflects an ongoing division between technically driven analysis and liquidity-focused market interpretation. ChartNerd's assessment posits that the three-month Heikin-Ashi close represents a key structural signal for XRP. Conversely, opposing views prioritize macro capital flows as the ultimate determinant of market direction.
With the quarterly close approaching, both perspectives converge on the same significant point in time, making the coming weeks particularly important for longer-term market observers.