Analyst: This Historical Pattern Looks Very Dangerous for XRP

A well-known analyst has revived concerns about XRP’s long-term trend after highlighting a formation that emerged before significant downturns.

Steph Is Crypto (@Steph_iscrypto), a popular market commentator on X, posted a weekly chart comparing XRP’s current position relative to its 50-week simple moving average with similar moments in 2018 and 2022. Each of those earlier instances preceded major declines, and the new chart has raised questions about whether the market now stands at a similar point.

The Analyst’s Warning

Steph Is Crypto marked three points on the chart, highlighting 2018, 2022, and 2025. In each example, XRP traded above the 50-week moving average before dipping back toward it. He described the situation as “very dangerous for XRP,” a statement that reflects his view that history could repeat itself if momentum weakens and buyers fail to hold support above the moving average.

The earlier cycles show XRP losing strength after falling below this indicator. The chart illustrates how price corrections accelerated when the weekly candle closed below the line. The current candle sits close to the same threshold, creating a technical environment that traders have seen before.

Potential Impact of the Pattern on XRP

The 2018 and 2022 examples demonstrate steep corrections that developed after the loss of this support. If the market repeats that behavior, XRP could enter a period of weakness until new buying interest appears at lower levels. Adding to the bearish sentiment, XRP recently flashed a death cross. Market participants often look for signals that confirm strength or weakness, and the combination of multiple bearish signals could discourage potential investors.

Factors Mitigating Potential Decline for XRP

Although the chart serves as a warning, the current condition differs from past cycles in several important ways. XRP has gained more institutional visibility, and the recent launch of the Canary spot XRP ETF introduced a new channel for demand, supporting the view that long-term interest is growing.

Additional initiatives across the XRP Ledger ecosystem and Ripple’s growing network of partnerships and acquisitions have increased activity and use cases. These factors provide the market with more potential support than it had in earlier cycles.

XRP is currently trading at $2.27, down 0.87% from yesterday. If it experiences a further decline, increased participation from funds and retail buyers could limit the depth of the pullback and help the asset stabilize.