According to a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA), XRP's long-term market structure may be poised for one more substantial move before the onset of the next market downturn.
In a recent video analysis, ChartNerd examined XRP’s historical price movements using the Gaussian channel on a three-month chart. He presented a case for why the asset could potentially reach the $27 price level in the near future.
ChartNerd highlighted that XRP's multi-year price cycles have consistently shown interaction with what he terms the "upper regression band" of the Gaussian channel. He observed that previous significant market lows, such as those recorded in January 2017 and January 2020, occurred around this same upper boundary just before major rallies commenced.
He emphasized a recurring pattern in these cycles, where the regression band has effectively functioned as an area of support across various phases of XRP's price history.
$XRP : $27, then a drop to $1.
Don't hate the player. Hate the game https://t.co/YtH6BOALVb— ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) October 30, 2025
The Trajectory Towards $27
Based on his analysis, ChartNerd suggests that XRP is currently situated within an accumulation range that typically precedes a phase of expansion. He posits that if XRP can maintain its current position and build upward momentum, it might approach the $27 mark, describing this potential move as a "blow off top." This projected price action, he explained, would be consistent with the behavior of the Gaussian channel observed in prior market cycles.
He elaborated that should XRP sustain stability within its present accumulation zone and subsequently advance towards the $27 level, the subsequent bear market could see prices realign with the Gaussian channel, potentially establishing a new long-term low.
ChartNerd noted that the upper regression band of the channel tends to rise over time. This implies that future lows could be formed at higher price points than previous ones, even after a significant market correction. However, he also cautioned that this same technical framework indicates a steep retracement is likely once the current bullish phase concludes.
We are on X, follow us to connect with us :- @TimesTabloid1
— TimesTabloid (@TimesTabloid1) June 15, 2025
Potential Decline to $1 Following the Peak
The analyst's forecast indicates that XRP's next complete market cycle could involve a sharp decline from its projected peak near $27 down to approximately $1. He supported this projection by referencing historical data, pointing out that past bear markets for XRP have historically resulted in corrections exceeding 95%.
It is worth noting that other analysts have also predicted a substantial crash for XRP, with some forecasting a 95% decline following its next major rally. ChartNerd asserted that a similar retracement would once again bring the digital asset's price into alignment with the upper regression band of the Gaussian channel.
He stressed that such a price movement would not be an anomaly when compared to previous XRP cycles, as every significant rally since 2013 has ultimately reverted to this specific structural area on the Gaussian channel.