Analysts Warn of Deeper Correction if Bitcoin Loses the $80,000 Floor

Key Takeaways:

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  Bitcoin’s direction now hinges on whether the $80K support zone holds.
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  Selling pressure is driven mainly by recent buyers, whales, and ETF outflows.
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  A break below $80K could open the door to a move toward $74K.

Analysts say that the cluster of buy orders sitting just above the $80,000 level has become the focal point of the market, because a breakdown below that price could trigger an entirely new wave of selling pressure.

The benchmark cryptocurrency is currently priced around $84,482, down nearly 7% over the past day, with most of its year-to-date gains erased.

The Source of Selling: Recent Buyers, Not Long-Term Holders

The slump is being fueled primarily by newer market participants, according to on-chain analytics firms. Realized-loss data has climbed sharply and is now comparable to the capitulation seen during the collapse of FTX. Glassnode’s metrics show that wallets holding coins purchased during recent months are leading the sell-off, suggesting that short-term confidence has deteriorated rapidly.

Large Wallet Liquidations Intensify the Downturn

Momentum on the downside has been amplified by major Bitcoin disposals from early adopters. Arkham Intelligence flagged activity from the wallet belonging to Owen Gunden, representing a sale of roughly 11,000 BTC — around $1.3 billion — since late October. The most recent transfer landed on Kraken, and concentrated liquidations of this size tend to remove liquidity and accelerate declines during periods of market stress.

Institutions Shift From Net Buyers to Net Sellers

Institutional flows are no longer absorbing selling pressure. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs registered heavy redemptions in mid-November, including a single-day withdrawal of approximately $523 million from BlackRock’s IBIT.

Analysts view the reversal in ETF demand as a major contributor to Bitcoin’s inability to stabilize after whale-driven volatility.

Technical Models Reinforce the Bearish Scenario

Market watchers are focused on indicators that historically track multi-week price movements. Analyst Ali Martinez noted that the weekly SuperTrend flipped bearish, a signal that in previous cycles has accompanied extended downturns.

Another analyst, Ted Pillows, reviewed live Binance trading data and found dense buy-order walls around $80,000 to $82,000, calling it the “line of defense.” If that support breaks, he estimates potential downside toward $74,000.

Outlook

Bitcoin’s next major move is expected to depend on whether the $80,000 zone absorbs ongoing selling or fails under pressure from whales, short-term holders, and institutional outflows. Until that threshold is either defended or surrendered, the market remains direction-biased to the downside rather than recovery.