Arthur Hayes Declares End of Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle

Arthur Hayes, co‑founder of BitMEX, announced in his recent blog post that the traditional four‑year Bitcoin cycle is now obsolete.

Hayes attributes Bitcoin's price fluctuations to monetary policies, suggesting future trends linked to liquidity conditions.

Monetary Policies Supersede Bitcoin's 4‑Year Cycle

Arthur Hayes has prominently challenged the conventional Bitcoin cycle. He argues that the four‑year cycle, traditionally influenced by halving events, is losing relevance against monetary policies.

Hayes points to the importance of monetary policy in influencing Bitcoin prices. The focus is shifting from traditional cycles to global fiscal dynamics affecting Bitcoin and related assets.

Liquidity Conditions Set to Influence Bitcoin Market

Hayes's predictions suggest a shift in market dynamics, potentially increasing institutional interest. The emphasis on liquidity could benefit Bitcoin and closely correlated cryptocurrencies.

The discussion highlights the role of broader financial conditions rather than specific regulatory changes, suggesting prolonged bullish trends under certain economic settings.

Arthur Hayes, Co‑founder, BitMEX, states: "The four‑year Bitcoin cycle is no longer applicable," arguing that Bitcoin's price movements are driven by monetary policy rather than halving events or timing.

Historical Liquidity Patterns in Bitcoin's Price Movement

Past Bitcoin cycles linked to monetary easing, like the post‑2009 credit expansion, are highlighted. Similar conditions could signal upcoming trends.

Potential outcomes could include increased activity in Bitcoin‑related DeFi protocols, where increased liquidity historically boosts trading and investment.