Key Takeaways
- •Arthur Hayes anticipates Bitcoin will achieve new record highs in 2026 due to an anticipated expansion in US dollar liquidity.
- •He attributes Bitcoin's performance in 2025 to a contraction in liquidity, rather than a weakening of its fundamental value.
- •Government-backed investments in artificial intelligence have propelled tech stocks to outperform other asset classes, even amidst macroeconomic challenges.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that Bitcoin is still poised to reach unprecedented all-time highs, despite its underperformance compared to gold and technology stocks in the previous year. Hayes identifies a significant shift in US monetary conditions as the primary catalyst for this anticipated resurgence.
In a recent post, Hayes elaborated on his perspective, arguing that Bitcoin's recovery is intrinsically linked to the expansion of dollar liquidity. He forecasts a substantial acceleration in this expansion throughout 2026.
Hayes stated, "If gold and the Nasdaq have the juice, how is Bitcoin going to get its groove back? Dollar liquidity must expand for that to happen." He expressed strong confidence that such an expansion is imminent next year.
Liquidity Expansion as a Catalyst for Bitcoin's Rally
Hayes highlighted several factors that could contribute to a surge in dollar liquidity. These include potential growth in the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet, a decrease in mortgage rates, and an increase in lending by commercial banks to strategically important, government-backed industries.
Furthermore, Hayes pointed to ongoing US military expenditures, which he suggested would necessitate significant financing through the banking system, thereby injecting more liquidity into the economy.
Historically, periods of looser monetary policy have been favorable for Bitcoin. Investors tend to shift capital towards riskier assets, such as cryptocurrencies, when the US dollar weakens due to inflationary pressures. Hayes noted that Bitcoin's decline in 2025 was largely a consequence of tightening dollar liquidity during that period.
AI Boom Bolsters Tech Stocks Amidst Liquidity Slowdown
While Bitcoin experienced a downturn, US technology stocks continued their upward trajectory. Hayes attributed this divergence to the strategic emphasis placed on artificial intelligence by both the United States and China.
He explained that government-backed investments and executive initiatives, particularly under President Donald Trump, influenced market signals. This allowed capital to flow into AI-related companies irrespective of conventional valuation metrics.
Technology stocks concluded 2025 as the top-performing sector within the S&P 500, achieving a 24.6% return. This significantly outpaced the index's overall gain of 18%. In contrast, Bitcoin saw a 14.4% decrease over the year, while gold experienced a substantial surge of 44.4%.
Hayes emphasized that Bitcoin's long-term value is intrinsically connected to the debasement of fiat currency. He described Bitcoin as "monetary technology" whose value increases as confidence in traditional monetary systems erodes.
"For Bitcoin to be worth close to $100,000, continuous fiat debasement is required," he asserted.