Bitcoin Cycles Don’t Revolve Around Halving Events, Says Hayes
In the past, analysts have used the Bitcoin halvings as a landmark to determine BTC’s cycle stages. This is because the event, which happens more or less every four years, slashes the amount of new BTC that is introduced into circulation through miners by half.
This supply crunch is then often followed by a price surge as demand picks up.
However, Hayes says that Bitcoin’s past cycles have been driven by the supply and quantity of money, primarily the USD and the Chinese yuan, rather than arbitrary four‑year patterns tied to BTC’s halvings.
According to Hayes, Bitcoin’s first cycle happened around the same time the US Federal Reserve (Fed) initiated quantitative easing and Chinese credit expanded. The cycle then ended when both the Fed and the Chinese central bank slowed money printing in 2013.
The second crypto market bull run was the “ICO cycle,” and was driven by the yuan credit explosion and currency devaluation in 2015. This bull market also collapsed as Chinese credit growth decelerated and dollar conditions tightened.
A couple of years later, during the Covid‑19 Pandemic, Bitcoin went on to surge on USD liquidity alone while China took a more restrained approach. This rally then ended when the Fed started tightening monetary policy in late 2021, Hayes said.
Current Bitcoin Cycle Is Different
Hayes also wrote in his post that the current cycle is different from those in the past.
He highlighted the US Treasury draining $2.5 trillion from the Fed’s Reverse Repo program and injecting it into the market by issuing more Treasury bills, as well as US President Donald Trump wanting to ease monetary policy to grow out debt, as differentiating factors for this cycle.
In addition to that, the US central bank has resumed rate cuts even though inflation is higher than its target. There are also two more cuts predicted this year.
According to data from the CME Futures markets, analysts see a 92.5 % chance of an October cut and 80 % odds that there will be another one in December.
Hayes went on to predict that this cycle won’t be influenced by China as much as past instances because policymakers are moving to “end deflation” instead of continuing to drain liquidity from the market.
That shift removes a major obstacle that would have brought an end to this cycle’s Bitcoin rally, according to Hayes.
There Are Still Analysts That Believe The 4‑Year Cycle Is Alive
While Hayes says the four‑year cycle is dead, other analysts believe Bitcoin price movements remain cyclical.
Glassnode, an on‑chain analytics and intelligence platform, said in August that Bitcoin’s price action still echoes prior patterns.
Relative to prior cycles, #Bitcoin’s all‑time highs in 2017 and 2021 were reached just 2–3 months ahead of today’s point in the cycle. While history is a limited guide, it’s a noteworthy context given recent profit‑taking and elevated speculative activity.
Meanwhile, Gemini’s head of APAC region, Saad Ahmed, said earlier this month that the market will likely continue to see “some form of a cycle.”
Recently, renowned trader and analyst Peter Brandt said that Bitcoin’s high could come “any day now” if the four‑year cycle is indeed still alive.
“These cycles from low‑to‑halving‑to‑high have not always been the same length, but the post‑halving distance of each has always been equal to the pre‑halving distance,” said Brandt.
The analyst explained that Bitcoin hit its low for the current cycle on Nov. 9, 2022. This was 533 days before the Bitcoin halving in April 2024.
“Add 533 days to April 20, 2024, and bingo, it is this week,” he said. The exact date was this past Sunday, which was one day before Bitcoin set a new all‑time high (ATH).