This week could prove pivotal for Solana (SOL). According to ETF tracking data, the final SEC deadline for the first spot Solana ETF is just four days away, with analysts giving it a 95% chance of approval in 2025.
Firms including Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Fidelity, Franklin, and Bitwise have all filed S-1s for a spot SOL product. The SEC has already acknowledged the filings and set the final decision date for October 10, 2025. Importantly, the regulator currently classifies Solana as “likely a commodity” – a key factor that has historically paved the way for ETF approvals.
Big week for Solana.
— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) October 6, 2025
The final deadline for spot $SOL ETF approval is just 4 days away.
High chances we get the approval this week. pic.twitter.com/nAVUr2g7PC
If approved, the Solana ETF would join a growing list of crypto-based investment products following the success of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs earlier this year. Such a move could attract significant institutional inflows and further legitimize Solana’s position as one of the top blockchain networks.
Adding to the optimism, market analyst Jelle shared a new chart showing SOL forming a textbook cup-and-handle pattern – a bullish technical structure that typically signals a continuation rally after a period of consolidation. The chart shows Solana’s price retesting the $230–$250 resistance zone that capped the market in early 2022 and mid-2025.
A clean breakout above this level, Jelle notes, could ignite a sharp move toward $400 and beyond, aligning with the ETF narrative and renewed institutional interest.
Solana has already been one of the best-performing large-cap assets this year, climbing from under $100 in early 2025 to nearly $240 today. Its strong price structure, improving ecosystem metrics, and rising developer activity have all reinforced confidence among traders ahead of the ETF decision.
Even though approval is not yet guaranteed, sentiment across the market is turning increasingly bullish. The ETF tracker shows Solana’s odds of approval matching those of XRP and Litecoin at 95%, far higher than other pending filings like SUI (60%) or Tron (50%).
If the SEC confirms approval this week, it could mark a historic milestone for Solana – and potentially trigger the next major leg higher in price.
With both fundamentals and technicals lining up, all eyes are now on the SEC’s decision – and whether Solana will become the next crypto to earn its place in the ETF spotlight.