The next major phase of the cryptocurrency market will be shaped less by retail speculation and more by coordinated government policy, according to a report from Binance Research.
The firm argues that 2026 marks a structural turning point for digital assets, as synchronized fiscal stimulus, monetary easing, and regulatory clarity combine to create the most supportive macro backdrop for crypto since the early pandemic era.
In contrast to previous cycles driven by leverage, hype, or novel narratives, Binance frames the coming expansion as a “policy-engineered” market regime, where institutional liquidity and compliant infrastructure replace retail exuberance as the dominant forces behind price formation and adoption.
From Data Fog To A Policy-Driven Risk Reboot
The report characterizes 2025 as a year of “data fog,” dominated by tariff shocks, political gridlock, and inconsistent macro signals that repeatedly interrupted risk appetite.
Despite record highs in total crypto market capitalization and Bitcoin prices earlier in the year, the market ended 2025 lower, reflecting its growing sensitivity to traditional financial cycles rather than crypto-native momentum.
That dynamic is expected to reverse in 2026.
Binance points to a three-part policy setup already taking shape: fiscal expansion through delayed tax refunds and transfers, monetary easing led by renewed balance sheet expansion from the Federal Reserve, and deregulation aimed at restoring risk-taking across capital markets.
These forces are expected to convert sidelined liquidity into active capital flows, with crypto positioned as a high-beta beneficiary.
Stablecoins Emerge As The Core Settlement Layer
The most consequential shift highlighted in the report is the rise of stablecoins as the economic backbone of the crypto ecosystem.
Binance data shows stablecoin market capitalization exceeding three hundred billion dollars in 2025, alongside daily transaction volumes that surpass those of traditional payment networks such as Visa.
This growth is no longer confined to emerging markets or crypto-native trading.
Stablecoins are increasingly used for cross-border payments, on-chain savings, institutional settlement, and tokenized financial products.
Regulatory clarity in the United States and Asia has accelerated this trend, positioning stablecoins as compliant, programmable cash rather than speculative instruments.
Binance argues that this evolution fundamentally changes how crypto scales.
Instead of relying on volatile token appreciation, growth in the next cycle is expected to flow through balance sheets, settlement activity, and yield-bearing on-chain assets, dynamics that more closely resemble traditional financial infrastructure.
Bitcoin Becomes A Financial Asset First, A Network Second
Bitcoin’s role in this new regime is also shifting.
While the asset reached new all-time highs in 2025 and continued to attract significant capital through regulated exchange-traded funds, on-chain activity and transaction fees declined over the same period.
According to Binance, this divergence signals Bitcoin’s maturation into a macro-financial asset increasingly accessed through off-chain vehicles such as ETFs and corporate treasuries.
Institutional inflows, rising hash-rate security, and discussions around sovereign Bitcoin reserves reinforce this positioning, even as base-layer usage plays a secondary role.
The implication is that Bitcoin’s future performance may be driven less by network throughput or retail adoption and more by its integration into institutional portfolios and national balance sheets.
Institutions Replace Retail As The Primary Growth Engine
Across decentralized finance and tokenized assets, the report highlights a similar pattern of institutionalization.
Real-world assets surpassed decentralized exchanges in total value locked during 2025, while protocol revenues increasingly resembled those of established financial firms.
Tokenized money-market funds and compliant lending structures emerged as credible on-chain alternatives to traditional cash management tools.
Rather than a return to speculative excess, Binance expects the next phase of growth to be characterized by execution quality, regulatory alignment, and capital efficiency.
In this framework, crypto’s competitive advantage lies not in bypassing regulation, but in embedding itself within it.
As global liquidity conditions loosen and policy clarity improves, Binance stated that crypto is entering its first true policy-aligned expansion, one where institutions, stablecoins, and financial infrastructure, not hype, set the direction of the market.