Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle May Be Over: What’s Next?

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  The Bitcoin 4-year cycle may no longer apply.
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  The Fed’s monetary easing is boosting liquidity.
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  Bitcoin could peak in 2026 based on liquidity trends.

Shifting From Time Cycles to Liquidity Trends

For years, Bitcoin investors and analysts relied on the so-called “4-year cycle” to predict market highs and lows. This pattern aligned with Bitcoin halving events, which historically led to bull runs roughly every four years. But that cycle may now be broken. Why? Because the bigger force driving the market could be global liquidity—not time.

With the U.S. Federal Reserve starting to ease monetary policy, a new phase of liquidity could be unfolding, one that may guide Bitcoin’s price movement more than any past cycle. The 4-year pattern was never a guaranteed roadmap, and current macroeconomic conditions are proving that liquidity plays a more crucial role than previously thought.

The Fed’s Easing and Its Impact on Crypto

Recently, the Fed has signaled a shift in its stance, moving from tightening to easing monetary policy. This means more money is being pumped into the system, which historically benefits risk assets—including cryptocurrencies.

As liquidity increases, so does investor appetite for speculative assets. This could set the stage for Bitcoin to rally once again, with many analysts now eyeing 2026 as a potential peak year. This projection aligns not with a fixed time cycle, but with expectations of rising liquidity over the next 18–24 months.

Rethinking Crypto Market Strategies

The potential end of the Bitcoin 4-year cycle forces investors to rethink old strategies. While halving events still matter, they may no longer be the primary driver of market performance. Instead, tracking macroeconomic indicators—like interest rate changes and liquidity injections—could offer more accurate insights.

This shift also opens the door for a more mature and data-driven crypto market, where success depends on understanding global financial flows rather than simply following historical patterns.