Bitcoin and the S&P 500 volatility indicators have noticeably declined, suggesting that market players are becoming more optimistic about future developments. During a period when expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December are rising, the resurgence of risk appetite hints at potentially rejuvenated market dynamics. The climb of Bitcoin’s price beyond $91,000 strengthens the perception of stability as its inverse correlation with volatility indices grows stronger.
Drop in Volatility Supports Markets
The option-based 30-day Bitcoin volatility index BVIV from Volmex dropped back to an annualized 51% after reaching 65 in mid-November. Similarly, Deribit’s DVOL indicator has followed the same downward path. The S&P 500’s 30-day volatility index, VIX, rose to 28% during the week of November 21st, but currently, it stands at 17%. This scenario indicates that the anxiety in both the cryptocurrency and stock markets is dissipating, and buyers are beginning to take control again.
The decrease in volatility suggests a positive upward trend as markets seek direction. Bitcoin’s price has rebounded by over 10% in the past week, surpassing the $91,000 level, while the decline in volatility aligns with the stability observed in traditional assets. This trend reveals that Bitcoin is starting to move more in harmony with macro market dynamics as a maturing financial instrument.
Fed Rate Cut Expectation Boosts Risk Appetite
The decline in volatility is attributed to the market’s dependence on “cheap liquidity.” While the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its December meeting had decreased to 39% last week, it has surged to 87% following recent data. According to Dr. Sean Dawson, research director at Derive platform, this shift has led to a notable weakening of fear indicators in the options market.
Data from Deribit and Derive indicate that the balance in Bitcoin’s one- and four-week buying and selling options has narrowed from last week’s -10 to -5, favoring puts. Although investors continue to pay premiums for downside protection, the decline in volatility has started to unwind defensive positions. Dawson commented, “Markets are balancing on a knife edge, but sentiment has improved significantly with the expectation of a Fed rate cut.”