Bitcoin is moving closer to a price zone that has historically favored long-term accumulation, according to analysis from Alphractal. This zone typically forms when BTC trades below all major daily moving averages, from the 7-day through the 720-day. In previous market cycles, such conditions have often marked periods where downside momentum weakened and patient buying outperformed short-term trading.
Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin is nearing a historical accumulation zone below key long-term moving averages
- •Whale inflows to exchanges have dropped by roughly two-thirds since late November
- •Panic-driven selling seen during the post-ATH correction appears to have faded
- •Large holders are shifting from selling to waiting, reducing market pressure
For this setup to fully emerge, Bitcoin would need to dip below the $86,000 level. Rather than signaling structural weakness, Alphractal notes that this area has often acted as a foundation for longer-term positioning, especially when broader selling pressure is already fading.
Whale Selling Pressure Drops Sharply
On-chain data points to a major shift in whale behavior. Large Bitcoin holders are now sending significantly less BTC to exchanges, particularly Binance. These exchange inflows are closely watched because they are usually associated with selling intent.
Current data shows that whale inflows have fallen to roughly $2.74 billion, down from nearly $8 billion during the height of the correction in late November. Large transactions, especially those between 100 and 10,000 BTC, have become far less frequent, signaling a pause in aggressive distribution.
November Panic Gives Way to Consolidation
The contrast with late November is notable. As Bitcoin corrected sharply from its all-time high near $126,000, whale inflows surged while price fell below $90,000 and later tested the $85,000 level. That period reflected clear stress, even among large, typically disciplined holders, as some rushed to sell in order to limit losses.
Today, that panic-driven behavior appears to have subsided. Whales are no longer flooding exchanges with BTC and seem to be waiting rather than reacting, reducing one of the strongest sources of sell-side pressure in the market.
What This Means for Bitcoin’s Market Structure
The combination of weakening whale selling and price compression near historically important technical levels suggests internal stabilization rather than growing downside risk. While this does not guarantee an immediate rebound, it indicates that the recent correction phase may be transitioning into a consolidation period, where supply pressure is more controlled.
With whales stepping back and price nearing long-term accumulation territory, the next major move is likely to depend on external catalysts such as liquidity conditions or macro developments, rather than forced selling from large holders.