Bitcoin's price may decline by almost 50% if its current downward trend over the past month continues, according to a traditional finance analyst. However, onchain analytics firm Glassnode has suggested that Bitcoin's current downtrend may not be as severe as some market participants believe.
Analyst Forecasts Potential Bitcoin Decline
Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone stated in an X post that Bitcoin hitting $100,000 could be "a Speed Bump Toward $56,000." McGlone's analysis of the chart indicates that it has been normal for Bitcoin to revert to its 48-month moving average, which is currently around $56,000, after similarly extended rallies, citing 2025 as an example.
On-Chain Indicators Suggest a Potential Bottom
Conversely, several key data metrics suggest that Bitcoin's drop to $98,000 on November 4 could have marked a local bottom. This was the first time in over four months that Bitcoin fell below the psychologically important $100,000 level. Bitcoin has since slightly recovered, trading at $101,380 at the time of publication.
Analysts at XWIN Research Japan indicated that Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, an indicator that measures whether the asset is overvalued, has dropped to levels that have historically marked local bottoms.
In its market report, Glassnode stated that one key Bitcoin metric indicates the recent downturn may simply be a normal correction within the ongoing cycle. The firm elaborated on the Relative Unrealized Loss metric, which measures the total unrealized losses in USD relative to market capitalization.
Bitcoin Market Resembles Past Mid-Cycle Corrections
Glassnode observed that unlike the 2022–2023 bear market, where losses reached extreme levels, the current reading of 3.1% suggests only moderate stress. This level is comparable to mid-cycle corrections experienced in Q3–Q4 2024 and Q2 2025, all of which remained below the 5% threshold.
“As long as unrealized losses stay within this range, the market can be classified as a mild bear phase characterized by orderly revaluation rather than panic.”
This analysis comes shortly after Vineet Budki, CEO of venture firm Sigma Capital, told Cointelegraph that BTC may experience a retracement of 65% to 70% in the next two years.
Long-Term Forecasts Revised
While short-term price trajectories are being debated, some analysts are revising their long-term forecasts. On Thursday, ARK Invest's Cathie Wood cut her long-term Bitcoin price projection by $300,000, citing concerns that stablecoins are eroding Bitcoin's role as a store of value in emerging markets. Wood had previously forecast a top BTC price of $1.5 million by 2030.