Bitcoin bears give three reasons why the bull market is over

Technical Indicators Suggest a Potential Cycle Top for Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) price experienced a 3% decrease on Thursday, bringing it 13% below its all-time high of $126,000 reached on October 6. Some traders are suggesting that this recent peak may have marked the end of the current bull cycle for BTC.

One crypto analyst has pointed to a "bearish MACD crossover" on Bitcoin's three-week chart, indicating a potential signal for the end of the current bull run, based on historical patterns.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator, a tool used by traders to identify trend changes and momentum shifts, has shown a bearish crossover. This occurs when the MACD line (represented by the blue wave) moves below the signal line (represented by the orange wave).

Notably, the last two instances of this bearish MACD signal coincided with the peaks of the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles, marking significant tops for Bitcoin.

Furthermore, the same three-week chart displays a "bearish engulfing candle," a pattern that also appeared at the peaks of the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles.

These technical observations, along with "several other warnings," suggest that the cycle top may have already been reached, according to analyst Jesse Olson.

Additional indicators supporting this view include declining network activity, which points to reduced on-chain demand. Data from Nansen shows a 30% decrease in daily active addresses on the Bitcoin network during October, falling from 632,915 to 447,225.

A reduction in daily active addresses typically signals waning network engagement and decreased user demand, often preceding price corrections or periods of consolidation.

Imminent Cycle Peak Based on Halving Cycles

Pseudonymous trader and investor Mister Crypto has supported the cycle top thesis, asserting that Bitcoin is approaching a historical peak based on its four-year halving cycle.

Historical data from past Bitcoin halving cycles in 2012 and 2016 reveals a trend where prices typically reach their peak between 518 and 580 days after the halving event.

As of now, it has been 558 days since the 2024 Bitcoin halving, placing the BTC market within the historical 518-580 day peak window.

"We are right around the time where Bitcoin historically peaks out," Mister Crypto stated, posing the question: "Will this time be different?"

Fellow analyst CryptoBird suggests that Bitcoin may only have a few more days of price expansion left in the current cycle if it continues to follow historical patterns based on past halvings.

In a recent analysis, CryptoBird indicated that Bitcoin is "consolidating before an explosion and the top window is open."

While some analysts, like Arthur Hayes of BitMEX, argue that the Bitcoin four-year cycle is no longer the primary driver of prices, suggesting that monetary policy and liquidity are more influential, others believe that the impact of halvings is diminishing.

These differing views acknowledge that factors such as a positive interest rate cycle, institutional adoption through ETFs, and the maturation of Bitcoin as a mainstream asset could potentially lead to further upside in 2026.

Continued Upside Potential for Bitcoin

Beyond the arguments that the Bitcoin four-year cycle may no longer dictate the bull run's duration, some analysts maintain that BTC still has room for growth based on technical indicators.

Analyst Jelle observed that Bitcoin has "formed a higher low and the range remains intact" on the daily time frame. He added, "Reclaim the $116K region, and the fun resumes."

Fellow analyst Mags identified Bitcoin trading within a "bullish megaphone pattern," which has historically preceded upside breakouts.

Mags commented, "A massive breakout is loading."

The Bitcoin Mayer Multiple indicator suggests that BTC remains closer to "oversold" levels at current prices, indicating that a target of $180,000 is still a possibility.