Bitcoin's Pre-Holiday Surge
Bitcoin (BTC) has staged a significant rally, climbing 13% from its recent multi-month lows and reclaiming the $90,000 mark on Wednesday. This upward movement has surprised many and has fueled hopes for a continued positive trend leading into the Thanksgiving weekend. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency for pre-holiday rallies, adding to the anticipation of further gains.
Key observations indicate that Bitcoin is attempting to defy its historical average return of -0.8% during the Thanksgiving holiday period. For Bitcoin to maintain its upward trajectory and avoid a potential breakdown below the $80,000 level, it must successfully reclaim the critical resistance zone between $100,000 and $105,000.
Analyzing the Thanksgiving Rally
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView revealed that the BTC/USD pair was trading at $91,400 on Thursday, following a more than 5% increase on Wednesday. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, noted the significance of a bullish Wednesday preceding Thanksgiving, referencing a historical pattern where Thursdays have typically seen declines.
Traders are closely watching to see if Bitcoin can sustain its momentum and continue its ascent into the holiday, potentially breaking its historical performance trends on Thanksgiving Day. Bitcoin has only seen gains on this particular day in two of the last ten years, with notable declines observed in 2018 and 2020. Analyst Crypto Daan Trades highlighted that the average return on Thanksgiving Day has been -0.8%.
Other market observers are focusing on the potential peak of Bitcoin's price during this year's Thanksgiving, especially as it trades just 4% below its all-time high close of over $95,000, which was recorded on November 28, 2024. Analyst Terence Michael commented on the prospect of a $100,000 Bitcoin Thanksgiving, advising his followers to remain prepared regardless of the immediate price action.
Bitcoin thanksgiving history 🦃 pic.twitter.com/K3bUKNJc8V
— Tall (@tall_data) November 26, 2025
Jelle, another analyst, observed that Bitcoin is currently testing the resistance area between $91,000 and $93,000, noting it as the "first meaningful bounce in a long time." He also pointed out that markets will be closed on Thanksgiving Day, suggesting that sideways trading might persist until after the holiday.
"Expecting chop below the resistance until after the holiday at least."
As previously reported, Bitcoin's short-term potential for further gains is currently influenced by uncertainties surrounding interest rate policies, inflation expectations, and prevailing conditions within the BTC derivatives market.
Critical Price Levels for Bitcoin
According to on-chain data provider Glassnode, Bitcoin's structure remains "fragile" following its loss of the 50-week moving average and key cost-basis support. This current market condition is reminiscent of the first quarter of 2022, after previous all-time highs, when the market weakened due to declining demand.
Glassnode's latest Week Onchain report highlighted that the current price range mirrors the dynamic of a weakening market, constrained by limited inflows and fragile liquidity. The report further indicated that realized losses are elevated, with short-term holder (STH) loss ratios collapsing to 0.07x, signaling a reduction in liquidity and demand.
"If this ratio remains depressed, market conditions could begin to mirror the weakness of Q1 2022, raising the risk of a breakdown below the True Market Mean (~$81K)."
On the upside, the significant area that Bitcoin needs to reclaim is situated between $100,000 and $105,000. This zone encompasses Bitcoin's STH realized price and the 50-week moving average. These trend lines have historically acted as crucial support levels for Bitcoin's price, and their successful reclamation is essential to prevent further declines that could potentially push BTC below the $80,000 threshold.