Bitcoin Breakdown Below 2-Year Trend Line Sparks Fears of a New Bear Phase

Key Takeaways

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  Bitcoin dropping below its two-year Simple Moving Average (SMA) signals a potential major trend shift for the market.
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  The $85,000–$86,000 zone will determine whether Bitcoin recovers or continues weakening.
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  Losing support above $80,000 could trigger a deeper correction toward the high-$70,000 range.

The streak of Bitcoin holding above its two-year Simple Moving Average (SMA) has ended, and analysts who track macro-cycle signals are beginning to treat this latest price breakdown as more than just a routine dip.

A Rare Long-Term Indicator Flips for the First Time in the Cycle

Instead of focusing on short-term oscillators or weekly moving averages, analysts are now drawing attention to a metric that rarely makes headlines: the two-year simple moving average.

According to market strategist Ali Martinez, Bitcoin has now fallen below this multi-cycle gauge. This threshold has historically separated periods of bullish expansion from phases of exhaustion. The 730-day line is currently situated near $81,250, and Bitcoin's slide beneath it suggests that buyers are losing control of the broader trend.

Historically, the last times Bitcoin breached this same line occurred after cycle highs, not before. This indicates that the signal traditionally reflects a turning point rather than anticipating one.

Bulls Face Their First Major Stress Test in the Mid-$80,000s

Even after losing the long-term benchmark, buyers have not conceded. Bitcoin has made efforts to reclaim the mid-$80,000 zone, an area that many traders now consider Bitcoin's first significant battleground in months.

Analyst Ted Pillows warns that the cluster between $85,000 and $86,000 will be decisive in determining whether the market stabilizes or if momentum continues to unravel.

If bulls can push Bitcoin above this resistance band and achieve a convincing close, the chart suggests a path toward gradual recovery, potentially reaching $89,000, $92,000, and $95,000 – all levels that previously supported the market earlier in the year.

But There’s a Failure Path — And It Isn’t Pretty

Should bulls fail to reclaim this key area, the support level just above $80,000 becomes the market's final line of defense. Losing this threshold would open a rapid descent into the $78,000–$79,000 range, which represents the next zone of historical demand.

In such a scenario, the breach of the two-year SMA would transition from a warning signal to confirmation that Bitcoin's macro trend has shifted from expansion to a cooling phase.

Where Things Stand Now

Bitcoin has not yet committed to a definitive outcome. The market is in a state of anticipation as price action battles within the mid-$80,000 range, with a bullish recovery on one side and the potential for the cycle's first true bear phase on the other.

Currently, the only certainty is uncertainty. The next significant breakout, whether upward or downward, will indicate whether this cycle still possesses momentum, or if the cooling phase has already commenced.