Bitcoin may surge to $150,000 before year-end as institutional demand follows gold's safe-haven rally, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards. The hedge fund manager told reporters at TOKEN2049 in Singapore that a Bitcoin breakout above $120,000 could happen within days and lead to a rapid climb to new highs.
Edwards described the potential move as “very quick” once Bitcoin clears the $120,000 psychological barrier. The cryptocurrency rose over 6% in the past week, recovering above $118,500 for the first time since Aug. 15. Trading data showed renewed momentum building in the asset after a period of consolidation.
The projection represents a more measured outlook compared to some market forecasts. André Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise Asset Management, suggested Bitcoin could reach $200,000 before year-end. His analysis pointed to the inclusion of crypto in U.S. 401(k) retirement plans as a potential catalyst for unlocking $122 billion in new capital.
Even a 1% allocation by retirement fund managers could provide sufficient momentum to push Bitcoin above $200,000, Dragosch noted. The institutional adoption pathway represents a significant structural shift in how traditional investors access cryptocurrency exposure through tax-advantaged accounts.
Edwards placed odds of “just over 50%” on three consecutive positive months for the crypto market to close out 2025. He suggested the four-year market cycle theory remains relevant and may function as a self-fulfilling prophecy as investors adjust positions based on cyclical expectations.
Institutional buying remains the primary driver of price action, according to Edwards. He indicated his outlook would shift significantly if that institutional demand weakens or reverses course. Historical data supports the case for fourth-quarter strength in Bitcoin markets.
Bitcoin has averaged monthly returns of approximately 20% in October, 46% in November and 4% in December, based on historical performance data. The seasonal pattern has held across multiple market cycles, though past performance does not guarantee future results.
Technical analysts identified an emerging golden cross pattern that could support a $150,000 price target in the fourth quarter. The pattern occurs when shorter-term moving averages cross above longer-term averages, typically signaling potential upward momentum in asset prices.