Bitcoin's recent surge to a two-month high is showing early signs of a sentiment shift within the cryptocurrency derivatives landscape, according to the latest report from Bybit x Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics. Following a period of over a month of consolidation, Bitcoin's advance into the upper-$90,000 range has bolstered broader market appetite, positively influencing futures open interest and options positioning.
The sideways trading that characterized the end of 2025 has given way to a sharp breakout this week, with Bitcoin briefly approaching $98,000 before settling at a slightly lower price. Data from CoinCodex indicates that the crypto market leader has surged over 6% in the past seven days. After a minor drop in the last 24 hours, BTC was trading at $95,884 at the time of reporting. This recent movement has also lifted the altcoin market and triggered a noticeable reaction in both perpetual futures and options markets.
Perpetual Futures Show Rising Risk Appetite
Open interest in perpetual futures has experienced a sharp climb, exceeding $8 billion across the nine major tokens tracked by Bybit and Block Scholes, as detailed in the report. This level of open interest is reminiscent of Bitcoin's rally in early January, when it reached $94,000. The breakout in spot prices appears to be attracting new leveraged long positions, which is reflected in a significant rise in the firms' Risk-Appetite Index.
Funding rates for select altcoins have also increased, signaling renewed demand for long exposure. Ether and other major assets are benefiting from ongoing inflows into their respective spot ETFs, which have maintained positive performance year-to-date.
Options Markets Shift From Bearish to Neutral Skew
The options markets are also undergoing a recalibration of sentiment. Short-dated Bitcoin and Ether volatility smiles, which previously showed a bias towards a bearish put premium, have now shifted towards a neutral skew. This adjustment mirrors a brief sentiment flip observed in early January when BTC reached $94,000, although that shift reversed once the price failed to sustain the level. Analysts suggest that the $94,000 to $96,000 region remains a critical trigger. A sustained hold above this zone could decisively favor call options, whereas a fall below this range might reintroduce a preference for downside protection.
Despite the magnitude of the spot price move, implied volatility has remained relatively subdued. Realized volatility has settled near 38 percent, while short-tenor implied volatility is close to its lower historical bounds, indicating that markets are recalibrating rather than anticipating significant disruption.
Spot ETF Inflows Reinforce Market Strength
Continued inflows into spot ETFs are providing a strong foundation for market sentiment. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net inflows exceeding $660 million year-to-date, including a substantial $760 million on January 13, a single-day inflow not seen since the liquidation event on October 10. The report also highlights that Ether is experiencing a similar boost, supported by both ETF activity and robust on-chain fundamentals, with approximately 30 percent of its total supply now staked.
“Cryptos have braved past geopolitical shockers at the onset of 2026, appearing intent on catching up with other risk assets,” stated Bybit Learn Chief Market Analyst Han Tan. “Recent gains bode well for our 2026 Bitcoin target of $150,000, though the road ahead will likely be marked by turbulence as geopolitical and U.S. monetary policy risks cloud the macro outlook.”
Term Structures and Leverage Signal Confidence
The report further indicates that futures term structures for both Bitcoin and Ether are showing similar values across different maturities, suggesting consistent pricing of risk. Seven-day BTC futures are trading at a notable 10 percent premium to spot, underscoring strong demand for leveraged upside exposure. However, historical data demonstrates that derivatives behavior remains sensitive to Bitcoin's ability to maintain key price levels. When BTC failed to hold $94,000 earlier this month, volatility smiles quickly reverted to pricing a put premium, a risk that still applies if the current breakout loses momentum.
Outlook Hinges on BTC Holding the Upper-$90K Zone
While early indicators suggest an improvement in market sentiment, the future trajectory of the market depends on Bitcoin's ability to sustain its position in the upper-$90,000 range. A prolonged hold above this level could deepen the bullish shift observed in derivatives markets. Conversely, a significant price decline might lead to a reset in positioning, with a renewed focus on downside hedging.