Bitcoin's Price Structure Evolves
Bitcoin's start-of-year rebound extended into the second week of January, with the price climbing above $97,000 and marking its highest level in nearly two months. The move confirmed a new higher-high structure after BTC secured a daily close above $95,000, a level that had capped upside attempts since November. That close weakened near-term resistance and shifted short-term market bias. From a technical perspective, the breakout removed a dense supply zone, leaving relatively thin resistance overhead until the low-$100,000s. As a result, traders have turned attention back to whether Bitcoin can revisit the $100,000 handle before month-end. The rally unfolded with limited spot liquidity, amplifying price moves. Once BTC cleared $95,300, more than $270 million in short positions were liquidated, accelerating momentum and pushing the market into a more one-sided setup.
Investor Takeaway
Onchain Metrics Support the Rally
Onchain indicators suggest the move is not purely technical. Data shows selling pressure from U.S.-based investors easing after a week of distribution earlier in January. While the Coinbase Premium Index remains slightly negative, the pace of outflows has slowed, pointing to reduced urgency to sell rather than renewed panic. At the same time, Bitcoin inflows into Coinbase Advanced have surged to roughly 2.5 times their recent baseline. In past cycles, similar inflow spikes have often aligned with accumulation, OTC settlement activity, or ETF-related positioning rather than immediate selling. That pattern contrasts with market tops, where inflows tend to coincide with sharp distribution. Stablecoin inflows, however, remain subdued. This suggests many investors are still waiting on confirmation rather than deploying fresh liquidity aggressively. Historically, stablecoin liquidity has often lagged early BTC strength, only accelerating once price direction becomes clearer.
Derivatives Markets Signaling Positioning Resets
Derivatives data reinforces the view that the rally is being driven by positioning resets rather than excessive leverage. On Binance, net taker volume briefly exceeded $500 million in a single hourly window, reflecting aggressive market buying. That spike coincided with rising open interest, a combination that has more often aligned with trend continuation than local tops. Funding rates tell a similar story. Bitcoin’s hourly funding across major exchanges dropped to its lowest level since mid-October 2025, signaling crowded short exposure and cautious use of leverage. As funding normalized, price moved sharply higher, suggesting that short covering added fuel to the rally rather than capping it. Over the past 24 hours, more than $680 million in short positions were liquidated across the market, according to derivatives data. The forced deleveraging flipped positioning risk-on and pushed the next major liquidity pocket toward the long side.
Investor Takeaway
Key Levels to Watch
Psychologically, $100,000 remains the level in focus. From a technical standpoint, the more meaningful supply zone sits higher, roughly between $103,300 and $107,500. Between $95,000 and that band, overhead resistance appears limited, leaving room for momentum-driven extensions if buying pressure persists. On the downside, the $92,500 to $90,000 range stands out as an important structural area. A daily order block formed there following the breakout, marking a zone where Bitcoin could form its next higher low if price retraces. Holding that region would strengthen the case for a renewed push higher rather than a deeper pullback. Market liquidity remains thin across both spot and futures, which increases the risk of sharp swings in either direction. That fragility means upside moves can travel quickly—but also that any loss of momentum could trigger abrupt corrections.
Sentiment and Flows Respond to Market Shifts
Sentiment has shifted alongside price. On prediction markets, traders now assign better-than-even odds that Bitcoin reaches $100,000 in January, reflecting renewed confidence after weeks of range-bound action. The broader crypto market has joined the move, with ether, solana, and BNB also advancing as total market capitalization climbed to around $3.4 trillion. Institutional flows appear to have provided a cushion. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $750 million in net inflows on Tuesday, their largest single-day intake in nearly three months. Such flows tend to absorb supply gradually rather than spark immediate volatility, often keeping early stages of a rally orderly. Macro conditions have also helped. Risk appetite has improved across equities, metals, and crypto amid resilient U.S. labor data and steady inflation. Recent geopolitical tensions have failed to disrupt markets, and the absence of fresh legal or policy shocks has removed a near-term overhang.
Near-Term Outlook for Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s breakout has reset market expectations. With structure turning bullish, selling pressure easing, and derivatives positioning cleared, the path toward six figures looks more open than it has in weeks. Still, thin liquidity means conviction will matter. A failure to build acceptance above $95,000 would quickly bring lower support zones back into play.