Science writer Shanaka Anslem Perera noted in a post from his X account that Bitcoin has deviated from its long-standing four-year cycle model. Perera emphasized that this deviation invalidates the traditional price behavior driven by block reward halving events, although he insists that the bullish trend has not ended.
Historical Break in Bitcoin Cycle
Historically, Bitcoin’s performance has been shaped by the four-year block reward halving cycle. These periods usually initiated strong bull runs followed by sharp corrections. However, by 2025, this cycle appears disrupted. On October 6, 2025, Crypto Twitter announced Bitcoin’s cycle peak at $126,270. The subsequent 21% pullback led some analysts to predict an 84% crash based on historical patterns.
Perera argued that this approach is no longer valid. Internal blockchain metrics like the Pi Cycle, MVRV Z-Score, and Puell Multiple, which traditionally signal peaks, are currently silent. This silence suggests that the market is actually in an “interim consolidation” phase, indicating that the cycle is not over. According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s growth structure is progressing on a broader time scale this time.
ETFs Shift the Balance
Perera believes that the most critical element in Bitcoin’s new structure is the spot ETFs. The institutional investment influx, spearheaded by giants like BlackRock and Fidelity, has led to fund inflows exceeding $64 billion. Such a large capital influx absorbed selling waves from individual investors, limiting market volatility. Perera highlighted that it’s now possible to state that Bitcoin’s price is primarily driven by settlement dynamics, not sentiment.
This impact was evident in the recent period as well. According to SoSoValue data on November 4, there was a total outflow of $186.5 million from Bitcoin ETFs, which increased to $660 million within six days. However, as of the last trading day on November 7, the trend reversed with $240 million flowing into the ETFs. Following these inflows, Bitcoin’s price rose by 2.38% to reach $101,997. This stability in institutional interest indicates a new market order that renders predictions based on the four-year cycle obsolete.