Bitcoin (BTC) has become “one of the most leveraged assets in history,” according to Alphractal Founder and CEO Joao Wedson. The executive pointed to a sharp rise in perpetual futures trading that has reshaped market behavior.
Bitcoin Open Interest Hits Fivefold 2021 Levels
In a post on X, Wedson explained that perpetual trading activity has “exploded,” as traders, funds, and high-frequency desks are increasingly opting for leverage over spot exposure. He said leveraged activity tends to surge during periods of increased volatility, particularly during large market drops.
This shift is also visible in open interest (OI), which reached an October peak nearly five times higher than levels seen at Bitcoin’s November 2021 all-time high. Such a pattern indicates traders’ focus on securing rapid gains through high-risk leverage.
Wedson added that the distribution of OI across exchanges shows how aggressively platforms have promoted leveraged products. He even went on to note that BitMEX, which controlled 90% of the market in 2017, now holds just 0.65%, while newer exchanges dominate the landscape.
Binance, for one, accounts for 30% of the market, followed by Bybit at 16.7%. Wedson also revealed that Alphractal’s model on current long-short positioning shows longs at 72.4% (worth around $25.72 billion) and shorts at 27.6% (worth around $9.79 billion). He said trader exposure is tilted 2.6 times more toward longs, despite historical trends showing short sellers often having better odds of profit.
Wedson described the positioning as “strange,” but noted that extreme leverage helps explain the imbalance, with Bitcoin spending more time rising while leveraged longs remain vulnerable to rapid wipeouts.
BTC's Potential $91K Breakout and Future Price Targets
Bitcoin broke above the $91,000 mark on Thursday after rising by nearly 5% amidst a broader market rebound and is now trending higher. According to crypto analyst Ted Pillows, the crypto asset is approaching resistance between $93,000 and $94,000, and a successful reclaim could push the asset toward $100,000.
However, he warned that failure to reclaim this resistance may trigger a short-term correction, which could potentially drive BTC back down toward the $88,000 level.
Another market commentator, “Captain Faibik,” observed that Bitcoin is forming a Descending Broadening Wedge on the 4-hour chart. The pseudonymous trader said that BTC has likely bottomed out, but bulls must reclaim the $100,000 resistance level to restore strong upward momentum. He added that a break above $100,000 could trigger a solid bullish rally in December.