The Bitcoin (BTC) price just triggered one of the strongest oversold signals in its entire history – even deeper than the 2018 bottom and the 2022 capitulation during the FTX and LUNA crashes. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe says BTC has never printed a reading this extreme before.
Traders were excited to buy Bitcoin at $120,000 not long ago, but now that it’s sitting near $60,000–$80,000 ranges after a heavy drawdown, many are suddenly unsure. Van de Poppe points out that this is classic market psychology – fear stepping in exactly when the data is screaming the opposite.
What the BTC Chart Is Actually Showing
The latest chart indicates that Bitcoin’s 2-year MVRV Z-Score has plunged to the lowest level ever recorded. This metric compares Bitcoin’s current market price to the average cost basis of coins moved in the last two years. When it falls sharply, it means most of the market is holding unrealized losses – usually a sign of deep undervaluation.
Historically, this signal only hit similar zones during the December 2018 bottom and the November 2022 FTX crash. Both moments ended up being major cycle turning points.
This time, the drop is even deeper. The MVRV line on the BTC chart falls straight through every previous low, despite Bitcoin’s price still being far above the levels from past bear markets. That combination – higher price but historically extreme undervaluation – makes the current setup very unusual.
Why a Faster Recovery Is Possible For Bitcoin Price
Van de Poppe argues that this kind of oversold reading usually appears right before conditions flip. Back in 2018 and 2022, liquidity rotated back in quickly once selling pressure dried up, and Bitcoin began strong multi-month recoveries.
The same conditions might be forming now. The Bitcoin price has been bouncing aggressively between dips toward $80,000 and sharp recoveries toward $90,000, but the on-chain metrics suggest the market is already pushing through deep fear.
For now, traders are still reacting emotionally to volatility. But the data paints a different picture. Bitcoin has never looked this undervalued through the lens of its 2-year MVRV model.
The last two times this metric flashed, the bottom wasn’t far away – and both led to major trend reversals.
If history ends up repeating itself, this could be one of those rare moments where extreme fear is hiding a longer-term opportunity.