Current Market Analysis and Future Projections
Latest analysis suggests Bitcoin may not hit its lowest point until 2026, with a potential rebound to nearly $99,000 on the horizon if sell-side pressure diminishes. Despite recent declines, traders are cautiously optimistic about a future rally, grounded in on-chain analytics and cyclical market patterns.
The current subdued trading activity and cyclical market behavior suggest a prolonged consolidation phase before a significant move.
Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin’s bottom may not occur until late 2026, according to recent market forecasts.
- •Declining trading volumes indicate limited prospects for a short-term bullish turnaround.
- •Sell-side activity appears to be waning, which could enable a rally toward approximately $99,000.
- •On-chain data points to decreasing large-volume exchange inflows, hinting at a potential stabilization phase.
Extended Downtrend and Long-Term Outlook for Bitcoin
Crypto analyst Jason Pizzino recently highlighted in a YouTube analysis that Bitcoin could continue to decline over the next year, with the possibility of reaching its long-term low only by October 2026. Pizzino emphasized that the market is in a phase where it’s susceptible to sudden shock moves, often unnoticed by the majority of traders.
He explained that the current trend aligns with the end of an 18-year cycle, involving cycles in real estate and risk assets, which influence Bitcoin’s trading patterns. The declining volume of Bitcoin trading, particularly at the end of 2022 and into 2023—the prelude to the recent bull market—suggests that a reversal might be approaching, but the move could be quiescent initially.
The trader noted that the 200-day simple moving average continues to act as stiff resistance, and trader risk appetite remains low, as indicated by a balanced long/short position ratio. Market participants are wary, awaiting a clear signal to shift their stance.
On-Chain Indicators Signal Potential Rebound
Meanwhile, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant observed a decline in exchange inflows from major entities, indicating reduced selling pressure. According to its weekly report, large players’ deposit volume has decreased from mid-November levels of 47% to around 21%, and the average deposit size has fallen by 36%, from 1.1 Bitcoin to 0.7 Bitcoin.
CryptoQuant suggests that a continued decrease in sell-side activity could push Bitcoin’s price back towards $99,000. This level represents the lower boundary of the Trader On-Chain Realized Price bands, serving as a critical support during bear markets. Breaching this would see critical resistance levels at $102,000 and $112,000.
While short-term prospects remain subdued, on-chain data and cyclical patterns indicate that a longer-term rally remains plausible once accumulation resumes and selling pressure subsides.