Veteran trader Peter Brandt has cautioned that Bitcoin's current price chart exhibits similarities to the soybean market approximately 50 years ago. During that period, soybean prices reached a peak before experiencing a substantial 50% decline as global supply began to exceed demand. Brandt suggests that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could face a similar fate.
However, this bearish outlook is not shared by all market observers. Other Bitcoin (BTC) analysts remain optimistic, interpreting the current charts as indicators of further upside potential.
Brandt stated to Cointelegraph that Bitcoin is currently forming a "rare broadening top on the charts," a pattern he described as "famous for tops." He further elaborated on the historical parallel, noting that "In the 1970s, Soybeans formed such a top, then declined 50% in value."
Brandt's warning extends beyond Bitcoin itself, suggesting that if this historical pattern holds true, it could also significantly impact companies heavily invested in Bitcoin. He specifically mentioned Michael Saylor's company, MicroStrategy (MSTR), whose stock price has also seen a decline. MicroStrategy's stock has fallen 10.13% over the past 30 days, reflecting the mounting pressure on corporate Bitcoin treasuries due to a sharp drop in net asset values.
Brandt Predicts Potential Bitcoin Price Drop
Peter Brandt further elaborated on his concerns, warning that the significant Bitcoin price surge that the cryptocurrency community has been anticipating might not materialize. Instead, he suggested that Bitcoin could enter a bear market, with prices potentially falling as low as $60,000.
In contrast, a majority of analysts hold a more bullish view. They believe Bitcoin is poised for one more significant rally within the current cycle, potentially pushing its price as high as $250,000, according to industry figures like Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX.
Historically, the fourth quarter has been Bitcoin's strongest period, with an average return of 78.49%. October, in particular, is often viewed as a favorable month for Bitcoin's price performance.
Despite these historical trends, recent market sentiment has shifted downwards. A broader market downturn was triggered by concerns over US President Donald Trump's tariff policies, which followed a period of record highs. This development has led to increased caution among analysts.
Crypto Market Sentiment Declines to "Extreme Fear"
In a month typically considered bullish for cryptocurrencies, The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered an "Extreme Fear" score of 25 in its latest update. This indicates a significant downturn in market sentiment.
Trading account AlphaBTC on X commented on the current market conditions, stating, "Bitcoin really needs to hold here, keeping the recent higher lows in tack and have another attempt at the monthly open where it was rejected yesterday."
However, not all analysts share this pessimistic outlook. David Hernandez, a crypto investment specialist at 21Shares, believes that Bitcoin's "opportunity window" for upward price movement could reopen quickly. This potential surge could be fueled by positive news such as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing signs of relief or the continuation of a disinflationary trend.
"Bitcoin is coiled and ready to spring upward."
Meanwhile, Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, pointed to gold's recent 5.5% drop from its highs as a potential indicator that a rotation into Bitcoin and altcoins may be commencing.