Bitcoin recovered on Sunday, showcasing an upward trend by surpassing the $111,000 mark. This price movement is interpreted as investors gearing up for the “Uptober” rally after a rough September. Yet, the existing price gap in Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures introduces short-term uncertainty.
Analyzing the CME Futures Gap
At the start of the week, Bitcoin’s CME futures market opened with a price gap not seen for several weeks. Historically, these CME gaps tend to close quickly, raising the possibility of a short-term pullback among investors. Analysts warn that although such gaps usually close swiftly, they can occasionally remain for months, implying downside risks, particularly if Bitcoin drops below $111,000. Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that failure to maintain this level could weaken market structure.
Cryptoappsy statistics reveal that Bitcoin has risen by 2.25%, trading at $111,814. The daily trading volume surged 50%, reaching $37.5 billion. According to CoinGlass, open positions in futures increased by 2%, passing $78.5 billion, with $47 million in liquidations in the last 24 hours. Last week’s liquidation of high‑leverage positions surpassed $1 billion twice consecutively.
Expectations for the “Uptober” Rally
Market experts note that Bitcoin remained above the bull market support band with the weekly close. Analyst Benjamin Cowen compared the current scenario to September 2020, recalling the brief downturns following a two‑week increase and a subsequent strong October rally. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz expressed confidence that Bitcoin might rise to $200,000 in the current cycle.
The critical resistance level of $112,000 has been tested multiple times recently but hasn’t been breached. If Bitcoin exceeds this level, the upward trend might strengthen; otherwise, a fallback to $105,000 could occur. Despite the severe sell‑off in September, Bitcoin is up 3% on the monthly chart. CoinGlass data shows Bitcoin recorded gains between 10% and 30% each October over the past decade. Hence, the expectation for an “Uptober” rally remains strong among market participants.