Bitcoin's Potential Decline and Buying Opportunity
Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick projects Bitcoin will drop below the $100,000 mark by this weekend, though the decline may present a strategic buying opportunity for investors. The global head of digital assets research emphasized that this could be the final time the cryptocurrency trades beneath that psychological threshold.
The assessment follows Bitcoin reaching an all-time high above $126,000 on Oct. 6 before U.S.-China trade tensions triggered a sell-off four days later. Kendrick acknowledged uncertainty around how far the asset needs to fall before establishing a stable base, but maintained his confidence in an eventual recovery.
Key Indicators for Market Stabilization
Gold-to-Bitcoin flows remain a critical indicator for Kendrick as he monitors potential stabilization signals. Earlier this week, a sharp sell-off in gold coincided with an intraday rebound in Bitcoin, suggesting investors may be rotating between the two assets. He anticipates these rotations becoming more frequent as market conditions evolve.
Liquidity Conditions and Technical Support
Liquidity conditions and technical support levels also factor into the analyst's turnaround thesis. Kendrick pointed to tightening liquidity measures and questioned when the Federal Reserve might respond by acknowledging these conditions or halting quantitative tightening. The cryptocurrency's 50-week moving average has held firm since early 2023, when Bitcoin traded near $25,000.
Recent Volatility and Price Targets
The recent $19 billion market liquidation event drove prices to a four-month low of $104,000 by Friday. Despite the volatility, Kendrick maintains his year-end target of $200,000 for Bitcoin, with a longer-term projection of $500,000 by 2028. At current levels around $108,200, reaching the year-end target would require an approximate 85% rally.
ETF Inflows and Future Momentum
Bitcoin ETFs recorded $477 million in net positive inflows on Tuesday, breaking a four-day losing streak driven by political factors. Kendrick expects continued ETF inflows to serve as the primary driver of price momentum for the remainder of 2025, particularly as the aftermath of the liquidation event settles over the coming weeks.
Investor Sentiment and Whale Activity
Investors showed renewed appetite for Bitcoin as three whales deposited tens of millions to open leveraged long positions on decentralized exchange Hyperliquid. Whale wallet 0x3fce increased its position to $49.7 million, while wallet 0x89AB opened a 6x leveraged long position worth $14 million, according to blockchain data platform Lookonchain.
Gold Prices and Safe-Haven Narrative
Gold prices slipped to around $4,075 per ounce on Wednesday, marking a steep decline from the record $4,381 per ounce reached days earlier. The precious metal's recent all-time highs may translate into additional momentum for Bitcoin as its safe-haven asset narrative reemerges, according to Kendrick's analysis.