Expert Forecasts Bitcoin Drawdown and Long-Term Growth
Vineet Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital, predicts Bitcoin will experience a drawdown between 65% and 70% within the next two years despite trading above $110,000. The venture capital executive attributes the expected retracement to widespread misunderstanding of Bitcoin's fundamental utility among traders.
Speaking at the Global Blockchain Congress 2025 in Dubai, Budki explained that investors who lack understanding of the assets they hold tend to sell first during market uncertainty. He noted that Bitcoin's functionality remains intact regardless of price fluctuations, even if the token drops to $70,000.
The Sigma Capital chief maintains a long-term bullish outlook, forecasting that Bitcoin will reach $1 million or higher per coin within the next decade. Budki stated that adoption will grow through a combination of price speculation and real-world Bitcoin use cases.
Debate on Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle and Market Drivers
The prediction reignites debate over whether Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle pattern remains relevant in 2025. Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder and market analyst, argues the cycle has ended, claiming macroeconomic factors like interest rates and money supply growth now drive price action more than cyclical patterns.
Growing institutional adoption presents a counterargument to traditional cycle theory. Financial institutions, governments, digital asset treasury companies, ETFs, and cryptocurrency exchanges collectively control over 4 million Bitcoin, representing nearly 20% of Bitcoin's total supply according to BitcoinTreasuries.NET data.
However, Seamus Rocca, CEO of crypto-friendly Xapo Bank, told reporters the four-year cycle remains active because investors continue treating Bitcoin as a risk-on asset. This behavior persists despite Bitcoin's intended function as a store of value.
Industry executives and analysts continue to debate when Bitcoin will achieve a seven-figure price point. The discussion encompasses whether market dynamics that have defined Bitcoin cycles since 2009 still apply in the current environment.
Understanding Drives Market Behavior
Budki emphasized that selling pressure emerges when asset holders lack comprehension of what they own. He maintains that this knowledge gap will trigger significant market movements at the first sign of trouble, reinforcing traditional cycle behavior.