Bitcoin Cycle Top? Key HODL Chart Flashes Warning

Understanding the 1+ Year HODL Line

Bitcoin’s long-term holder behavior has historically been one of the most reliable indicators of where we are in a market cycle. And right now, one crucial chart is flashing a familiar warning: the 1+ year HODL line is breaking down.

This chart shows the percentage of Bitcoin supply held by wallets that haven’t moved coins in over a year. When this number climbs, it suggests long-term holders are accumulating. When it drops, they’re selling—often into strength.

And here’s the big takeaway: every previous cycle top has coincided with a sharp drop in this metric.

Why the 1+ Year HODL Line Matters

In past cycles, long-term holders typically begin distributing their BTC when prices are near local or cycle tops. It’s a sign of confidence turning into caution.

As coins held for over a year are sold, it signals that experienced investors believe the price has reached—or is close to—peak levels. This behavior has been visible at every major cycle top, including 2013, 2017, and 2021.

Now, in late 2025, the HODL line is once again rolling over from a peak, hinting that the current bullish trend may be nearing exhaustion.

What Could This Mean for Bitcoin?

While this doesn’t guarantee an immediate crash or reversal, it does suggest caution. Long-term holders are often referred to as the “smart money” in crypto. Their selling has historically preceded market downturns.

That said, it’s worth watching other on-chain and macro indicators before making any decisions. But ignoring the long-term holder trend could be a costly mistake.