During October, Bitcoin experienced a fluctuating trajectory, briefly descending to $106,000, only to recover to $109,600 the next day. This movement sparked cautious optimism among investors as markets brace for a historically stronger November after a disappointing “Uptober” period. The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rate cuts and renewed trade tensions between the US and China amplified short-term selling pressure.
Altcoins Under Pressure, Bitcoin Dominance Faces Resistance
For cryptocurrency investors, October fell short of expectations. Known as “Uptober,” this period typically brings double-digit gains, yet Bitcoin failed to perform similarly this year. Initially touching $125,000, BTC declined to $108,000 due to US-China trade tensions and new tariffs. This day saw a 10% drop in Bitcoin value, with other cryptocurrencies losing 20% to 40%. However, a brief rally to $113,000 occurred amid high volatility.
October proved challenging not just for Bitcoin but for altcoins as well. Ethereum occasionally dipped below $3,790, while Solana fell below $187. Despite this, Bitcoin’s market dominance remained steady around 57%. This indicates a phase of consolidation rather than a complete market unraveling. Meanwhile, institutional purchases declined significantly, with one of the largest Bitcoin investors, MicroStrategy, acquiring only 778 BTC in October, a 78% decrease from September. The company’s total Bitcoin holdings exceeded 640,000.
The crypto market’s stagnation is influenced by growing interest rate uncertainty and global trade conflicts. Similarly, trading volumes on US-based exchanges have dropped by 25% over the past month, signaling investors’ short-term risk aversion.
'Moonvember' Hope: Expectations Stretching to 2026
November, humorously referred to as “Moonvember” in the crypto community, has traditionally seen Bitcoin gaining momentum after strong Octobers. Analysts, despite this year’s different landscape, believe the market holds the potential to test all-time highs by 2026. Achieving this requires the Fed maintaining a stable policy, increased institutional entries, and the absence of sudden macroeconomic shocks.
Over the past four months, Bitcoin has been trapped in a range between $106,000 and $123,000, with volatility at record lows. Historically, such stagnant phases are precursors to significant directional moves. If past cycles repeat, a strong rally towards the $170,000–$180,000 range by 2026 could be on the horizon. However, this necessitates a return of global capital flows towards riskier assets.
Despite October’s disappointment, Bitcoin’s resilience indicates the market’s fundamental faith in its value. As November unfolds, Fed decisions, inflation data, and geopolitical developments will play a pivotal role. Experts suggest that these low-volatility periods could offer opportunities for long-term investors. However, cautious optimism is more critical than ever in the crypto market.