The highly anticipated altcoin season has not yet materialized, despite months of market speculation. Bitcoin continues to maintain its dominance over altcoins, with its dominance chart consistently showing an upward trend. While there are occasional dips, Bitcoin's dominance tends to regain strength.
Bitcoin Dominance Reaches a Tipping Point
However, renowned market strategist Michaël van de Poppe suggests that Bitcoin dominance may be nearing a significant turning point. This shift, he believes, could pave the way for the next major altcoin rally.
In his recent analysis, Van de Poppe explained that while Bitcoin dominance is still trending upwards, it appears to be approaching a level where a reversal could occur soon. He drew parallels between the current market trend and the conditions observed in Q4 2019, highlighting notable similarities.
According to Van de Poppe, a critical indicator to monitor is the 20-month moving average (MA). He pointed out that a confirmed break below this support level could signify the commencement of a new phase for altcoins, which he described as "party time."
Data accompanying his analysis indicates that Bitcoin dominance is currently at 60.64%. This level has been tested multiple times by the 20-month MA in recent months. Importantly, the moving average itself is situated at 59.29%. Bitcoin dominance briefly fell below this level in September before experiencing a rebound.
This repeated interaction with the 20-month MA suggests a market that is testing its limits, mirroring the conditions observed in the previous cycle before a trend reversal took place.
Historical Precedence for Altcoin Season
Van de Poppe specifically referenced Q4 2019, a period when Bitcoin dominance had surged above the 20-month MA. After reaching a peak of 73.02% in September 2019, Bitcoin dominance began a gradual decline, retesting the moving average by February 2020.
Although it experienced a temporary recovery, the underlying structure eventually gave way by July 2020, leading to a sustained downturn. The resistance around the 20-month MA effectively suppressed Bitcoin's dominance throughout the subsequent year. By December 2021, Bitcoin dominance had fallen to 39.63%.
This significant decline coincided with the altcoin season of the previous market cycle, during which altcoins substantially outperformed Bitcoin. Van de Poppe believes that a similar pattern may be emerging now, suggesting that the upcoming phase could again favor altcoins if Bitcoin dominance convincingly drops below the 20-month moving average.
Other Analysts Share Similar Outlook
Another market analyst, Steve from Crypto Crew University, shares this perspective. He recently highlighted similarities between the current market setup and historical altcoin seasons.
Steve noted that the Bitcoin dominance chart is currently facing the same type of resistance that preceded the major altcoin rallies of 2017 and 2021. He suggested that this pattern could repeat, potentially around 2026, implying that an altcoin rally might be delayed rather than entirely absent.
The analytical platform Bitcoinsensus also identified signs indicating the possibility of an upcoming altcoin surge. The firm pointed out that Bitcoin dominance recently encountered another rejection from macro resistance, exhibiting a monthly decline that mirrors the pattern observed during the 2021 breakdown.
