Bitcoin Price Bottom Projected for 2026 Amidst Declining Trading Volume
Bitcoin (BTC) may experience a significant upward price movement, but this surge is not anticipated until 2026, according to recent analysis. Current market trends indicate that the next Bitcoin price bottom will likely take until 2026 to form. This outlook is influenced by declining trading volume, which diminishes the likelihood of a short-term bull market comeback. Despite these short-term concerns, sell-side pressure is reportedly cooling, potentially paving the way for a price rally to $99,000.
Crypto commentator Jason Pizzino, in a recent YouTube analysis, forecast that BTC/USD could see lower lows for up to a year. He specifically suggested that Bitcoin might not reach its long-term bottom until October 2026. Pizzino referenced community expectations that BTC/USD will form a bounce zone within the next eleven months.
“I think it’s still too early to know whether this is going to be a low that then pushes to a new all-time high or a low that then pushes to a major lower high because of where we sit in the 18-year cycle.”
Pizzino drew parallels between current market conditions and the behavior of risk assets in relation to the 18-year cycle theory, often applied to real estate markets. To reach its reversal zone, he highlighted Bitcoin's trading volume grinding lower, a pattern reminiscent of the period from late 2022 into 2023, which preceded the current bull market.
He noted that these "shock moves" often occur when the majority of market participants are not paying close attention. Pizzino expressed less optimism for a major trend change in the immediate future, citing the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) as a significant overhead resistance and a lack of trader risk appetite, as evidenced by a balanced long/short ratio.
Reduced Selling Pressure Could Fuel a $99,000 Rebound
Regarding investor behavior, the onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant suggests a potential consolidation phase before a new market frenzy. In their latest weekly report, researchers pointed to declining exchange inflows from large-volume entities as a key indicator.
The share of total deposits from large players has reportedly decreased from a 24-hour average high of 47% in mid-November to 21% currently. Concurrently, the average deposit size has shrunk by 36%, from 1.1 BTC in November to 0.7 BTC presently. CryptoQuant stated that selling pressure eases when large players reduce their transfers into cryptocurrency exchanges.
“At the same time, the average deposit has shrunk 36% from 1.1 BTC in November 22 to 0.7 BTC currently. The selling pressure eases when large players decrease their transfers into crypto exchanges.”
CryptoQuant predicts that sustained reductions in selling pressure could drive BTC/USD back towards the $99,000 level. They noted that this price point represents the lower band of the Trader On-chain Realized Price bands, which historically acts as price resistance during bear markets. Following this level, key price resistances are identified at $102,000 (the one-year moving average) and $112,000 (the Trader On-chain Realized price).
