Current Market Position and Support Levels
Bitcoin is currently testing support within the $94,000–$96,000 zone after experiencing a rejection near the $98,000 level. Analysts are closely monitoring this crucial area, emphasizing the necessity for a weekly close above the bull market support band for confirmation of a bullish trend.
Signals of Demand Recovery
On-chain analysts from CryptoQuant have observed an improvement in spot demand. This current phase is interpreted as an early recovery rather than the conclusion of the bull cycle. The cumulative volume delta has shifted to a buy-dominant state, indicating positive underlying market sentiment.
Institutional Interest and Potential Downside Risks
The financial sector is witnessing substantial institutional engagement, exemplified by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust which recorded inflows of $648 million on January 15, 2026. Despite these positive indicators, concerns about potential downside risks persist. These risks are attributed to macro volatility and fears related to tariffs, with projections suggesting Bitcoin could fall to the $80,000–$87,000 range.
Historical Context and Trade-Related Impacts
Historically, Bitcoin's market dynamics have demonstrated high sensitivity to trade-related news. Past events, such as tariff disputes in April 2025, have led to significant price fluctuations, often signaling transitions between bullish and bearish market phases.
Expert Predictions and Market Outlook
Key figures in the financial analysis community, including Tom Lee of Fundstrat, have offered optimistic predictions. Lee anticipates Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs by January 2026. This forecast is supported by the sustained institutional demand and the evolving dynamics of halving cycles.
Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high by the end of January 2026, maintaining $200,000–$250,000 year-end targets amid institutional demand shifting halving cycles.
However, market participants are maintaining a degree of caution. This caution is partly due to the possibility of 25% U.S.-Europe tariffs, which could reignite previous trade-related fears.