Veteran trader Peter Brandt has issued one of his most direct Bitcoin cycle warnings yet, pointing to a pattern that has repeated every single time in the asset’s history.
According to Brandt, Bitcoin has completed five major bull market cycles since inception, and each one formed a dominant parabolic advance that eventually broke. What followed every break, without exception, was a correction of 75% or more.
There have been five major bull market cycles in $BTC since inception. In all previous cycles the violation of the dominant parabolic advance has been followed by a 75%-plus correction — NO EXCEPTIONS!!
You better have a great reason to bet against this pattern. pic.twitter.com/Ca7wBlgmWR— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) December 1, 2025
In his latest chart, Brandt highlights the sweeping parabolic curves that defined previous Bitcoin expansions. Each curve ends with a sharp violation, immediately followed by a deep cyclical decline. His message is explicit: if the current parabolic structure fails, traders must be prepared for the same magnitude of downside seen in earlier cycles.
Brandt cautions that betting against this multi-cycle pattern requires “a great reason,” implying that historical rhythm should not be dismissed lightly.
Historical Bitcoin Market Cycles
The chart visualizes Bitcoin’s long-term logarithmic uptrend, noting how each curve steepens until momentum collapses, a rhythm that has shaped market cycles from 2011 through 2021 and now potentially again.
The takeaway is simple but significant: Bitcoin remains in a macro uptrend, but parabolic structures do not forgive violations. If BTC loses its current curve, Brandt believes the playbook of past cycles could repeat, with a severe retracement before the next long-term advance forms.