According to on-chain analyst Darkfost, the average realized price of Bitcoin’s short-term holders currently sits near $102,000. This metric represents the aggregate cost basis of coins acquired by newer market participants and often acts as a behavioral pivot point during periods of consolidation.
Darkfost explains that the calculation used in his analysis excludes a large historical Bitcoin movement involving roughly 800,000 BTC from Coinbase-related activity. By removing this distortion, the resulting data offers a clearer picture of how current short-term holders are positioned relative to price.
With Bitcoin trading below this level, short-term holders are effectively underwater. Historically, when price approaches this cost basis during broader uptrends, it has frequently marked a zone of accumulation rather than sustained breakdowns. However, this dynamic changes if market conditions deteriorate or sentiment weakens.
Market Behavior Shows Little Hesitation So Far
Despite trading below the short-term holder cost basis, recent price action suggests limited fear among newer participants. Short-term holders have continued to take profits during brief rebounds, indicating confidence in near-term price recovery rather than panic-driven selling.
Darkfost notes that the real test will occur once these short-lived gains are exhausted. If price repeatedly fails to reclaim the $102,000 level, short-term holders may begin exiting positions at break-even, potentially reinforcing resistance. Conversely, a clean move above this level would suggest renewed conviction and improved market structure.
Technical Charts Signal a Potential Reversal Pattern
From a technical standpoint, trader Merlijn The Trader has identified a developing double bottom pattern on the daily chart. This structure typically signals weakening downside momentum and increased buying interest at consistent support levels.
BITCOIN IS IN A DOUBLE BOTTOM SETUP.
But the market only cares about one thing:
Clear $102k.
Levels:
– Hold above $95.5k: bullish structure.
– Lose $87.5k: invalidation.Break $102k and the measured move points to $110k. pic.twitter.com/qVhU07gueQ
— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) January 16, 2026
According to Merlijn, the market’s focus is straightforward: Bitcoin must clear the $102,000 zone to confirm the pattern. A confirmed breakout above this level would complete the formation and imply a measured move toward the $110,000 region.
He also outlines clear invalidation and support thresholds. Holding above approximately $95,500 preserves the bullish structure, while a breakdown below $87,500 would invalidate the setup and suggest renewed downside risk.
A Critical Zone With Historical Significance
The convergence of on-chain cost basis data and technical resistance around the same price level underscores the importance of the $102,000 area. While similar setups in the past have often resolved to the upside during bull markets, analysts caution that these patterns do not hold during prolonged bear phases.
For now, Bitcoin remains in a compression zone where both conviction and hesitation are being tested. Whether price can reclaim the short-term holder cost basis may determine whether the market resumes its upward trajectory or enters a deeper consolidation phase in the weeks ahead.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.