Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone has described Bitcoin’s current position around the $100,000 mark not as a “victory lap,” but rather as a stress test. According to McGlone, the present market landscape reflects a dangerous scenario often dubbed the “calm before the storm.” Stocks are steady, historical volatility is low, and Bitcoin has drifted away from its usual fluctuations, suggesting that the markets may have become overly complacent.
“All or Nothing” Phase Commences
In McGlone’s Bloomberg note, a graph illustrates the comparison between Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) along with the realized volatility of the S&P 500. Both indicators are exceptionally low, and this tranquility is not expected to persist for long. McGlone notes that the VIX’s 50-week average hovers around 19, suggesting that stocks “might approach” this level, indicating potential volatility in the markets soon.
The situation is more critical on the Bitcoin front. The price has been stuck around the $100,000 mark in recent weeks and hasn’t managed to break above $110,000. As McGlone puts it, this is a “do or die” period. If Bitcoin fails to hold this threshold, it is forecasted that the price could retrace to levels around $56,000. Historically, Bitcoin cycles tend to cool precisely at this stage; the hype wanes, and the charts return to their mean values.
Correlation Risk: Bitcoin Tied to Wall Street
A key highlight of the analysis is Bitcoin’s sustained high correlation with the S&P 500, with McGlone’s data showing this ratio at over 0.53. This suggests Bitcoin has not fully claimed the “digital gold” identity, still mirroring Wall Street trends. Should stock markets shift direction, Bitcoin’s current calm could quickly dissipate.
A similar caution was issued recently by strategists at JPMorgan. The bank highlighted that the low volatility within the crypto market creates a “deceptive stability,” suggesting that in the event of a global liquidity squeeze, Bitcoin would be among the first assets to react.
Ultimately, for Bitcoin, $100,000 is no longer just a psychological barrier but a threshold where resilience is measured. Should market dynamics revive, this level could serve as strong support. However, a change in direction within global stock markets could swiftly undermine the confidence of crypto investors. The final quarter of 2025 looks set to redefine whether Bitcoin is viewed as a “safe haven” or a “risky asset.”