While macroeconomic uncertainty weighs on traditional markets, bitcoin is once again establishing itself as a strategic asset for institutional investors. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are recording record inflows, reaching unprecedented levels for several months. This massive return of capital signals a clear repositioning of large portfolios, now more inclined to expose themselves through regulated vehicles. A change in tone that could mark a new phase of institutional adoption, but whose strength remains to be confirmed.
In Brief
- •Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.42 billion in net inflows in one week, a level unseen since October 2023.
- •This rebound in flows marks a strong return of institutional investors through regulated channels.
- •Selling pressure from whales is easing, contributing to a reduction in the available supply on the market.
- •Analysts highlight, however, that this recovery remains early, and a sustainable uptrend would require several weeks of sustained flows.
A Massive Return of Flows into Bitcoin ETFs
Last week, American Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of 1.42 billion dollars, according to SoSo Value, marking their best weekly performance since October 2023.
This spectacular rebound comes after a period of slowdown and reflects a marked resurgence of interest from institutional investors.
Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer at Kronos Research, interprets this movement as a resumption of engagement from institutional investors, who are generally more cautious and structured.
"Flows into ETFs suggest that bullish allocators are returning through regulated channels," he stated. This reactivation of demand through instruments compliant with regulators’ requirements indicates, according to him, the beginning of a strategic repositioning. However, it is still too early to see it as a confirmed cycle reversal.
This return of flows was mainly concentrated on two pivotal days:
- •Tuesday: 754 million dollars in net inflows;
- •Wednesday: 844 million dollars, the highest daily level of the week;
- •Friday: a notable decline with 395 million dollars in outflows, without canceling the positive balance.
These significant flows were accompanied by a notable drop in selling by whales, those large BTC holders whose movements strongly influence the market. Consequently, the pressure on bitcoin supply eased, amplifying the impact of institutional purchases on prices. This technical setup could increase the market’s sensitivity to future capital movements.
The Macroeconomic and Strategic Context Behind the Rush
Beyond the capital inflow, other signals suggest a deeper evolution of the market structure.
Vincent Liu notably points to a calming phenomenon among large holders. "On-chain indicators show that whales have reduced their net selling compared to the end of December," he explains.
This reduction in selling pressure, combined with constant ETF purchases, tends to make the available supply rarer. "Absorption by ETFs, coupled with whale stabilization, indicates a tightening of effective supply and a market environment more conducive to risk," he summarizes. This setup could theoretically favor a stronger recovery, provided it is confirmed over time.
However, this optimistic diagnosis is tempered by other observers. The Ecoinometrics newsletter recalls that previous ETF flow spikes have often resulted in short-lived rebounds, without a real lasting bullish extension.
According to them, only a succession of several weeks of strong demand could reverse the overall trend. "Isolated positive days can help stabilize prices, but without sustained inflows, they won’t be enough to generate a sustained bullish trend," warns the publication. This week’s massive inflows could therefore be only an epiphenomenon, in the absence of continuity.
The massive return of capital to ETFs confirms bitcoin’s embedding in institutional strategies. As supply contracts and the halving approaches, bitcoin nears $97,000, driven by a dynamic that goes beyond mere speculation. A symbolic threshold that could open a new phase of valuation for the asset.