K33 Research argues that institutional adoption and policy shifts have ended Bitcoin's classic four-year halving cycle. The firm's October outlook suggests structural forces, not retail mania, now dictate trajectory as the asset enters a fundamentally new regime.
Bitcoin hit new all-time highs this week in both U.S. dollars and euros, marking its first euro‑denominated record since January 2025. K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde wrote that the familiar halving cycle has been rendered obsolete by sovereign participation and macro policy alignment.
ETF and derivatives exposure surged by over 63,000 Bitcoin ($7.75 billion) in a single week, representing the strongest accumulation of 2025. Open interest on CME futures jumped by nearly 15,000 Bitcoin, while U.S. ETFs absorbed over 31,600 Bitcoin in seven days.
K33 positions this rally as the antithesis of prior euphoric peaks. In 2017, optimism over CME's futures launch fueled a blow‑off top, while in 2021, the dream of ETFs ended in SEC rejection. However, in 2025, those aspirations became reality as Bitcoin established itself as a material part of the global institutional market.
BlackRock now manages roughly $100 billion in Bitcoin ETF assets. Morgan Stanley is guiding clients toward up to 4 % crypto allocations, while Washington D.C. has embraced a crypto‑friendly agenda, including President Trump's Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and plans to open 401(k) plans to digital assets.
Historical fractal analysis suggests Bitcoin could be nearing a cyclical high at 1,051 days from the November 2022 bottom. This roughly matches the approximate 1,060‑day expansions of prior bull runs, but Lunde dismissed such symmetry as coincidence and called fractals lazy.
K33 applies a six‑part framework of market risk factors, including funding rates, RSI, Bitcoin dominance decline, perps versus spot volumes, social trends, and supply dynamics. Only two indicators currently flash red: perp/spot divergence and an overbought RSI metric.
By K33's measure, the market remains outside the danger zone typical of prior peaks. The analyst expects only short‑term consolidation rather than structural reversal, despite the near‑term overheated appearance of leverage and inflows.
Lunde noted that during the 2021 climax, tighter monetary policy and expected post‑COVID sobriety coincided with the peak. In 2026, Trump is expected to replace Jerome Powell with a rate‑cutting successor, creating a setup that clearly favors scarce assets like Bitcoin.