On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant reports that profit-taking activity remains significantly below historical peak levels even after Bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $126,000 this week. The measured selling behavior suggests the rally may have additional room to run before reaching a market top.
Net realized profits over the past 30 days totaled 0.26 million Bitcoin, equivalent to approximately $30 billion. This figure sits roughly 50% below the 0.53 million Bitcoin ($63 billion) recorded in July 2025 and substantially lower than the $78 billion and $99 billion peaks observed in March and December 2024, respectively.
The restrained profit‑taking indicates that market participants are choosing to hold their positions rather than liquidate them at current price levels. Annual realized profits continue trending upward, a pattern historically associated with sustained price momentum during bull markets.
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's head of research, explained that bull markets typically end when holders begin selling into declining realized profits. The current environment shows positive momentum in realized profits, suggesting prices may continue their upward trajectory. When net realized profits start declining, it typically signals that newer buyers are rapidly selling at losses that exceed earlier holders' gains.
Short‑term holders recently realized gains at margins of just 2%, well below the 8% levels typically observed near market tops. Long‑term holders maintain realized profit margins near 129%, significantly lower than the extreme 300% levels reached during previous cycle peaks.
Veteran holders who have kept their Bitcoin for over a decade have moved only 5,000 Bitcoin in the last 30 days. This represents half the amount sold during prior peaks in March and December 2024, and stands 29% below May 2025 levels, according to the firm's analysis.
CryptoQuant previously projected that the rally could extend into the fourth quarter, potentially targeting a range between $160,000 and $200,000 if demand remains strong. JPMorgan analysts have also weighed in, suggesting Bitcoin is significantly undervalued compared to gold, implying upside potential toward $165,000 driven by retail investors embracing the “debasement trade” through ETF inflows.
The combination of low realized profits and minimal long‑term holder activity suggests little indication of a market top forming at current levels. Bitcoin is currently trading at around $123,650, reflecting a 2.4% increase over the past 24 hours.