On-Chain Indicators Show Market Transition
- •Bitcoin trades at $86.5K with rising on-chain cost bases.
- •Short-term holders’ cost basis now exceeds BTC’s market price.
- •Realized price stays lower at $56K, hinting at wider profit margins.
Bitcoin has surged to $86.5K, pushing several important on-chain indicators into new territory. These metrics give insights into how different investor groups are reacting to the market and where future price pressures might emerge.
One of the most notable shifts is in the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis, which now stands at $105.5K—well above the current BTC price. This means many recent buyers entered the market at a higher average cost, suggesting pressure to hold or sell at a loss. If Bitcoin rises above this level, it may signal a potential breakout as STHs re-enter profit.
The Active Investor Mean Price, reflecting the average entry point of engaged participants, is now around $87.1K—just slightly above the current trading price. This suggests most active traders are breaking even or holding minimal unrealized losses. If prices stay below this level, short-term consolidation could occur.
Realized and True Market Price Reflect Underlying Support
The True Market Mean Price—which captures a broader market average—is sitting at $81.3K, while the Realized Price remains at $56K. These levels represent deeper support zones where long-term holders bought their BTC, hinting that a large portion of the supply is still in profit.
The gap between the realized price and current market value suggests a strong base of long-term confidence. As long as Bitcoin remains well above realized price, the overall sentiment leans bullish.
INSIGHT: With Bitcoin now at $86.5K, key on-chain levels have shifted: STH cost basis is $105.5K, active investor mean is $87.1K, true market mean is $81.3K, and realized price remains $56K. pic.twitter.com/aMGVAO33OJ
What This Means for Investors
The divergence between these on-chain indicators paints a picture of a market in transition. While short-term holders are under water, long-term holders remain comfortably in profit. Investors should watch whether Bitcoin can reclaim the $87.1K and $105.5K levels to confirm a broader bullish trend.
Understanding these levels helps gauge potential resistance and support areas in the ongoing market cycle. If BTC continues upward, it could shift these averages higher, reinforcing bullish momentum.