Bitcoin extended its multi-week decline on Monday, hitting a fresh six-month low below $91,300 and erasing all of its 2025 performance. The latest drop pushed BTC roughly 27 percent off its October all-time high, reinforcing a broader deterioration in crypto sentiment. After rebounding from overnight lows, BTC resumed selling pressure during the U.S. session, falling to $92,500. The weakness carried over to other majors: ether hovered just above $3,000 after a 15 percent weekly slide. Crypto-linked equities were equally red. Coinbase, Circle, Gemini and Galaxy all shed about 7 percent. Treasury-linked digital asset firms moved lower as well, with MicroStrategy (MSTR) dropping 4 percent to its lowest level since October 2024. Ether treasury firms BitMine and ETHZilla fell 8 percent and 14 percent, while Solana-linked Upexi and Solana Company retreated 10 percent and 7 percent. Some HPC and AI-adjacent miners outperformed. Hive Digital jumped 10 percent after its computing subsidiary struck a cloud partnership with Dell Technologies, while IREN and Hut 8 posted moderate gains.
Investor Takeaway
BTC’s drawdown is being driven by macro pressure and positioning, not structural cracks. Traders should watch futures gaps and realized-loss stabilization for signs of a local floor.
Fed Expectations Shift as Economic Data Surprises to the Upside
The market narrative around Federal Reserve policy shifted again after the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey unexpectedly jumped to 18.7 — far above expectations for a decline to 6. With official data delayed by the government shutdown, secondary indicators like this have taken on outsized influence. The stronger reading reduced expectations for a December rate cut. Predictive markets now reflect a clearer bias toward holding rates steady: Polymarket assigns a 55 percent chance of a pause, while the CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability closer to 60 percent. That shift has created new headwinds for bitcoin. CoinDesk Senior Analyst James Van Straten noted an additional technical factor: CME bitcoin futures left an unfilled gap at $91,970 from April. BTC has a long history of revisiting such gaps, and the remaining distance is now a magnet for short-term selling pressure. Bitfinex analysts, however, see signs that the downturn may be nearing a local inflection point. Realized losses have begun to stabilize, and the pace of short-term holder capitulation is approaching levels that have historically preceded rebound phases. "Across multiple historical cycles, sustainable bottoms have only formed after short-term holders have capitulated into losses and not before," the analysts wrote. With this now the third-largest pullback since 2023, they argue a local low could form "relatively soon."
XRP Rejects $2.30 as Profit-Taking and Liquidations Accelerate
XRP faced its own sharp reversal on Tuesday after failing to break through the $2.30 ceiling. The rejection triggered heavy selling and a spike in volume, confirming that the resistance band remains structurally strong. XRP fell 4.58 percent to $2.18 during the session, with a 342 percent volume surge at 14:00 UTC marking the peak selling wave. The token swung between $2.27 and $2.18 as sellers defended overhead supply. A brief bounce to $2.27 at 16:50 UTC lost momentum as pressure re-emerged near $2.22. Derivatives data showed $28 million in XRP liquidations over 24 hours, with long positions accounting for nearly $25 million of that total — a sign of aggressive unwinding after the resistance rejection. ETF flows were mixed. Canary Capital’s XRPC — the first U.S. spot XRP ETF — posted $58.6 million in first-day volume on Nov. 13 but failed to drive sustained spot demand. Institutional traders remain selective, rotating toward assets showing stronger breakouts and reducing exposure in overextended zones like XRP’s $2.28–$2.30 region.
Investor Takeaway
XRP’s $2.30 resistance has now become a structural barrier. A hold above $2.20 would reset bullish momentum attempts, while a break below $2.18 risks a deeper slide toward the $2.02–$1.98 range.
Key Levels for Traders Across BTC and XRP
- Bitcoin futures gap near $91,970. This remains a gravitational zone until filled.
- Short-term holder capitulation is close to threshold. Stabilization in realized losses suggests a potential local bottom forming.
- XRP must defend the $2.20 region. A breakdown opens the path toward $2.02–$1.98.
- XRP resistance at $2.30 remains unbroken. Sustained ETF inflows would be required for a breakout attempt.
Broader crypto sentiment remains fragile as rate expectations shift, major assets struggle to reclaim key levels and institutional flows stay defensive. Traders should expect elevated volatility as markets digest the Fed outlook, futures positioning and technical inflection zones across majors.